COMMENT Khalid Ibrahim’s latest statement clearly signals that he is ready to pass the baton, as soon as a new menteri besar is agreed upon by all relevant parties, and all the relevant procedures have been followed.

There is some debate as to what those procedures are, and whether a dissolution of the state assembly will be necessitated. I suppose that depends, at least in part, on whether Pakatan Rakyat can agree on a new menteri besar.

I have withheld comment on Khalid’s moves since he was sacked from PKR, in order to wait for major events to play out. I think now is a good time to try and understand why he did what he did, and what is next for him.

I cannot persuade those who will read this as justification. Over this last week, I have thought long and hard about such individuals, and have penned a carefully considered response.

I intend this article, instead, as attempt at insight into how Khalid thinks.

Insistence on due process

After he was sacked, Khalid went to see the Sultan of Selangor and explained that as far as he officially knew, he commanded the same majority in the state assembly as he did when he was elected as menteri besar after the13th general election.

A few days later, PKR convenes a press conference, at which it announces the backing of two PAS assemblypersons, Hasnul Baharuddin (Morib, left) and Saari Sungib (Hulu Kelang).

As an aside, I wonder if anyone saw or heard from either of these PAS assemblypersons from the time of this announcement till today, Aug 17? If not, this suggests a rather thuggish brand of politics that is clearly not grounded in conviction in one’s own principles.

Some then jumped up and down stating: “See! Khalid lied to the Sultan. He obviously does not command the majority!”

This logic reminds me of the Kajang Move, where the reasons for launching the Kajang Move (or, in my words, Project Remove Khalid) appear to have taken place after the launching of the Kajang Move.

Khalid took the position that until such a time as a formal notice had been filed, a vote of no confidence passed, or a clear consensus among all three Pakatan member parties is announced, then by what procedure or due process was his majority considered to have been lost?

The situation may have been different if Khalid communicated to the sultan his confidence in the assembly’s confidence in him after the PKR press conference. But, surely, isn’t it illogical to expect him to have taken a different position prior to PKR’s announcement regarding the two PAS assemblymen?

This represents the same stubborn adherence to proper procedure that Khalid has practised throughout his entire tenure as menteri besar.

Some argue that this is hiding behind technicalities and respecting the letter, but not the spirit of law and democracy. That is their right. I do not believe, however, that anyone can accuse Khalid of being inconsistent in his principles. If only we could say the same for Anwar Ibrahim and PKR.

What next for Selangor?

Well, of course most of this is now moot. For better or for worse, PAS has taken a stand.

A number of things could happen here. Firstly, Anwar could immediately accede, resulting in Azmin Ali (left) becoming the menteri besar. If so, then truly, how could anyone think anything other than that this was the plan all along. And, despite all the melodrama of late, the Azmin-Anwar alliance is as strong as ever.

We note that this crisis has conveniently paved the way to rid PKR of Azmin’s prime contender in the deputy president’s race - a race in which the present result truly cannot, in the least, be considered reliable.

In what was a further travesty of PKR’s election process, the party election commission announced on Aug 12 that it would announce the party’s final election results, only to postpone this indefinitely the next day - raising all sorts of questions about manipulation. This process has gone from farce to tragedy and to unmitigated disaster.

We also note that PAS (along with DAP) used to be against Azmin, especially after GE13 when Azmin tried again to become menteri besar.

It seems that whether or not Anwar and Azmin are secretly still allies, Azmin appears to have brilliantly engineered this over a very long time.

I’m sure that all three parties will find that the wheels of politics and business will be a lot more ‘greased’ with Azmin at the helm, rather than Khalid. The only question is: which factions will get the spoils?

PAS seems to believe - correctly or incorrectly, who can say - that Azmin represents a balance of power against Anwar.

If this is true, then what PAS has done - again, rightly or wrongly - is a snub in Anwar’s face, and is thus likely to prolong the crisis in Selangor in the form of a Azmin-Anwar battle. Only this time, no one will have any right to blame Khalid for any of it any more.

What’s next for Khalid?

I have little to no influence as to what Khalid does, and my guess as to what he will do next is as good as yours. Nevertheless, here is my guess.

First, he will look for a vote of no confidence to be passed in an emergency sitting of the state assembly.

Second, he may or may not advise the sultan to dissolve the state assembly. I estimate 51 percent 'yes', 49 percent 'no'.

If the sultan dissolves the state assembly, then all the clocks are reset, and the people of Selangor will exercise their democratic right.

If the assembly is not dissolved, then I am guessing that Khalid will step down the minute there is a consensus amongt the three Pakatan parties and the sultan as to who the new menteri besar should be.

I see absolutely no reason to believe that Khalid will ‘cling’ on to power needlessly. However, I do understand that in the event that the assembly is not dissolved, he would not see the point in stepping down only to have the state plunged into leaderless chaos because there is no agreement as to who the next menteri besar should be.

I am sure some of the more virulent Khalid haters will accuse him of trying to engineer such a situation, but I have long stopped bothering about accusations from interested parties that are not grounded in solid proof.

In any case, these are only my guesses and personal interpretations. Time will tell.

For now, I feel that Khalid has indubitably acted consistently with his principles throughout his tenure, and throughout this crisis. There have been times when even his supporters have disagreed with his actions, which I deem entirely understandable.

However, disagreements aside, to date I am personally satisfied that no breach of integrity on the part of Khalid was perpetrated at any point.

Later on, when all the dust settles, it will be time to write Khalid’s political obituary. When that time comes along, we shall examine, in greater detail, what we have learnt in these six years and six weeks.
 

NATHANIEL TAN is delighted that the end is in sight, as far as he is concerned. He wishes those still duking it out all the very best, and tweets @NatAsasi.