Demographic changes will ensure PAS victory
The Singapore Straits Times, which seems to make a habit of publishing 'interesting' and 'provocative' commentaries about Malaysia, for reasons best known to itself, recently carried another interesting report by its Malaysian correspondent, Brendan Pereira.
Mr Pereira wrote, inter alia, about remarks made recently by PAS vice-president Mustafa Ali. The points of interest are as follows:
1) PAS needs to wrest all the 72 Umno seats in Parliament to form the next government.
2) The unassailable assumption in Malaysian politics is that whosoever controls the Malay vote rules the country.
3) This same assumption has given Umno the managing partner status in the Barisan Nasional coalition and reserved the position of prime minister for the president of Umno.
4) Mustafa was quoted as having said "the reality is that our country must be based on the Malay Muslims. This means that, if there is no Umno, PAS and Keadilan will be the basis of national politics to the Malay Muslims".
5) The best way for PAS to come to power is to target the 72 constituencies currently held by Umno. According to Mustafa, "we win the Umno seats, we become the backbone".
6) PAS insiders are counting on demographic changes, continued infighting within Umno and growing religious interest among the Malays to deliver the votes in Malay-majority constituencies.
Great stuff! Controversial, even.
Mr Pereira is a savvy and well-connected journalist with excellent connections in the corridors of power in Malaysia, even if the Singapore Straits Times is a bete noire in certain Malaysian circles. So, his views and conclusions should be taken seriously.
If what he says is even half correct, then all the posturing and fulminations by people such as Manora, Kim Quek, Manjit Bhatia, Dr Sarah Verghese etc, are exercises in futility. One cannot fight against inexorable demographics - where Malay-Muslims will form 70 percent of the Malaysian population well before 2020.
So, are we going to see a mad, lemming-like rush to the exits among those of us who are disenchanted and those who believe that there is no future for them in Malaysia? Will more hospitable shores beckon with their siren song of equality and meritocracy? Stay tuned. The game is well afoot.

