COMMENT When news first emerged that Anwar Ibrahim would be contesting in Kajang, after PKR’s representative Lee Chin Cheh resigned, there was negative reaction all around.

For the man-in-the-street, the general perception was that it’s a move to appease Azmin Ali, Anwar’s blue-eyed boy and Selangor Menteri Besar Abdul Khalid Ibrahim’s political rival. Mockery in the form of Anwar memes quickly made the rounds in the social media.

Civil society erupted with anger. Prominent lawyer Edmund Bon (left), who is a founder of LoyarBurok, a socio-political website, called on the Kajang electorate to vote for “any candidate but PKR’s”.

Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs chief executive Wan Saiful Wan Jan called it the “worst possible decision”, while Suaram adviser Kua Kia Soong said the move shows “contempt for the voters”.

To make things worse, Selangor PAS Youth threatened to boycott the election campaign and DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng told the media he was in the dark about the whole issue.

It didn’t help that no explanation was put forth other than Lee Chin Cheh’s assurance that it was “for the greater good”, whatever that means.

And with Anwar himself observing the elegant silence favoured by former Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and perfected by current Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, it was fodder for his critics.

Political commentators like former New Straits Times editor-in-chief A Kadir Jasin, former Selangor government employee Nathaniel Tan and the fabulist founder of the Malaysia Today website Raja Petra Kamarudin filled the void with their takes on what was going on.

Readers lapped it up for there was no official explanation forthcoming.

It was only when former Bersih 2.0 chairperson S Ambiga said PKR must give an "overwhelmingly good reason” for the forced Kajang by-election that the key player behind it provided an explanation.  

PKR’s strategy director Rafizi Ramli issued a press statement in his capacity as “the strongest proponent” of the scheme. Rafizi said the 'Kajang move' was designed to bolster Selangor in the face of an increasingly belligerent Umno and to act as a launching pad for Pakatan Rakyat’s eventual takeover of Putrajaya.

However, Rafizi (left) failed to address the two big elephants in the room, namely the Azmin-Khalid feud and whether Anwar would take over as Selangor menteri besar ('Maybe yes, maybe no' doesn’t exactly provide clarity on the matter).

He also made a strategic error by framing the move as one where the party had to “drag” Anwar into the picture and calling Anwar’s willingness to participate as “the mark of the man”.

He probably didn’t realise that, at best, the people see the move as Anwar’s unusual way of appeasing Azmin and at worst, a means to take over the post of menteri besar for himself.

Turning things around

Rafizi managed to redeem himself in a follow-up Q&A interview with The Malaysian Insider, where he explained in detail the things he alluded to in his press statement and addressed the whole Azmin-Khalid situation in a frank manner.

In a nutshell, Khalid is a good manager but not a good politician. And, Selangor, as the launchpad for Pakatan’s bid for Putrajaya, needs a “political maestro” like Anwar.

As for the possible power structure, Rafizi offered few permutations, such as Anwar as menteri besar with Khalid as adviser; Anwar as menteri besar with Khalid as exco member; Khalid as menteri besar with Anwar as exco member.

Crucially, Rafizi acknowledged that Azmin and Khalid “don’t see eye-to-eye” but that you can’t just sack either or both of the men. With Anwar in the picture, the infighting would end.

He denied, however, that this was the key reason for the move and stressed that the primary reason was to turn Selangor into a model state so that the people can get a sense of what a PR federal government would look like.

Rafizi has a good point. Of course people can already see what it’s like in Penang and Kelantan, but the former is a Chinese majority state while the latter is a predominantly Malay one.

Selangor’s demography is more representative of the rest of Malaysia. Its state government also has a remarkably balanced number of representatives from the three parties, with DAP and PAS each having 15 representatives and PKR having 14.

That’s not the case in Penang where DAP dominates, and in Kelantan where PAS does.

If BN had hoped that the move would create fissures in the coalition, its hopes were dashed when both PAS and DAP eventually pledged their full support for the Kajang move.

Selangor PAS Youth and DAP’s Lim Guan Eng have both confirmed that they are firmly behind Anwar for Kajang. Various leaders from both parties have also chimed in with assurances of support.

The Kajang move also received an unexpected endorsement from political scientist, Wong Chin Huat (left), who is generally critical of Anwar. “Many of my peers in civil society criticised this move on idealistic ideological grounds,” Wong said, “but our political system is broken and this is realpolitik at play here.”

He said that given the huge amount of power in the hands of the executive, the nascent two-party system in Malaysia can only be viable if different parties capture different tiers of government. The federal government may be very dominant but state governments, he said, still have considerable power and resources that can be used to compete with the federal government.

In line with Rafizi’s central argument, Wong said the electorate would not be satisfied with the status quo since 2008. “They want more and better,” he said. “Anwar is therefore being realistic by putting himself in Shah Alam before eyeing Putrajaya.”

As for the criticism that Lee’s resignation is a betrayal of the voters’ choice, Wong said such an argument simply doesn’t hold water because in Malaysia, people don’t usually vote for individuals or even parties but for coalitions. As such, the voters of Kajang did not as much choose Lee (or even PKR), but actually Pakatan Rakyat.

“Even with Anwar, if they choose or reject him, what they are really deciding is whether they want Pakatan or BN, so the issue of betraying the voters’ trust does not arise,” Wong said.

Another proponent of this move is DAP’s Liew Chin Tong (left), one of the party’s key strategists, who calls it a “wonderful decision”. Not many people are aware of this but Liew has been advocating Anwar for Selangor MB as far back as 2005, after the opposition suffered a devastating result in the 2004 general election.

“A lot of people erroneously view this as a struggle between Anwar and Khalid,” Liew said. “It is not. It’s a competition between Anwar and Najib.”

He noted that since GE13, both leaders have been stuck in a rut. “We’ve seen that Najib is in limbo but Anwar hasn’t got much to show for it either. This move is a game-changer, it will break the mould and allow Anwar to show what he’s made of.”

Liew argued that by the time GE14 comes around, no voter born after 1998 (the year Anwar was sacked from BN) would have any recollection of him as the finance minister or as deputy prime minister.

“With Selangor as his platform, Anwar can show the country what he can do if Pakatan should come to power at the federal level”.

Potential stumbling blocks

Many commentators have highlighted the possible hurdles along the way. Firstly, can Anwar win? On the face of it, it shouldn’t be a problem. PKR is the incumbent and Kajang is a constituency with a large Chinese population (41 percent), and which is likely to vote for Pakatan.

Fielding an MCA candidate is almost a sure-lose strategy. But unless BN fields a really surprise candidate like Najib (who has already said he won’t be contesting) or former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad (a near impossibility, although that would be a fascinating contest), it’s hard to imagine BN winning.

The real question is how large a majority Anwar can get. In GE13, PKR’s Lee had a 6,824-vote majority over his MCA opponent Lee Bang Seng. “If Anwar can’t even top that, he might as well pack his bags and go home,” says Wong Chin Huat. “Nothing short of a landslide would do.”

Secondly, what if Anwar wins but Khalid refuses to make way for Anwar to become menteri besar? A PKR source familiar with the situation said Khalid has been vacillating back and forth between the notion of stepping aside and staying put.

However, a PKR leader close to Anwar believes that when it comes to the crunch, Khalid will accept a graceful exit “because Khalid genuinely cares for Anwar”.

Meanwhile, a DAP source also familiar with the situation said, “If Anwar gets into Selangor, it would be for him to assume the role of menteri besar. Why else go through all this? DAP and PAS know this and we support it.”

Thirdly, there is the issue of the palace. What if the Sultan of Selangor disagrees with Anwar taking over as menteri besar?

Constitutional expert Abdul Aziz Bari (left) has weighed in on this matter (at the expense of several police reports being filed against him). In his opinion, the sultan has no legal right to reject a candidate as menteri besar as long as the candidate commands the support of the majority of the state legislative assembly.

Not surprisingly, pro-royalty blogger Raja Petra Kamaruddin begged to differ and maintains that the sultan has discretionary power to reject a candidate for menteri besar. What is somewhat surprising is that Khalid Ibrahim echoes this view.
 
In an interview with Malaysiakini, Khalid said: “(The sultan) may not accept the new candidate... And do you know that it may not just be one group (vying for the post)? There will be other groups lobbying for the job,” in obvious reference to PAS and DAP.

Many commentators like to refer to the Perak crisis, where in a dispute over control of the state government, the sultan recognised the BN candidate for menteri besar.

However, the situation in Selangor is very different from that of Perak, where both sides had an almost equal number of state representatives. In Selangor, Pakatan has a two-thirds majority. And with DAP and PAS fully behind Anwar, it will not be a close call by any stretch.

Anwar’s real challenge

Given that Anwar is likely to overcome all three key stumbling blocks – he is likely to win big, Khalid is likely to eventually bow out, and the sultan is likely recognise the new menteri besar – his main challenge is to fulfil the promise of his candidacy as spelled out by his chief strategist, Rafizi.

Traffic woes need to be solved, affordable public housing needs to be built more quickly, water resources need more rigorous planning, garbage collection needs to be improved and potholes need to be filled. These are among the items Rafizi has highlighted.

Rafizi also said, “We have to protect the rights of the minorities who are the targets of Umno’s political game.” With that said, the people will want to see Anwar resolve the issue of the Malay-language Bible seized by the Selangor Islamic Regigious Department (Jais), something which Khalid has failed to act on.  

“It’s not enough to play the sympathy card and say we are victims,” Rafizi said. “We can’t just continue to hammer BN for the next five years… You can’t just be in the same mode going into the next general election.”

This is a point both Wong Chin Huat and Liew Chin Tong agree with. Both note that they don’t see Najib being able to make a similar move with equal impact as this.  

“I do worry for Anwar. It’s not going to be easy… but if pulls this off, it will bode well for Pakatan in GE14,” said Rafizi, who is close to Anwar. And what if Anwar fails to resolve the range of issues highlighted by Rafizi?

Well the strategist himself has that answer: “So as much as a showcase for Pakatan Rakyat, Selangor can also potentially be an ugly picture for what a federal Pakatan government can look like if we don’t manage all these hotspots.”

OON YEOH is a new media consultant.