Just a year ago the Barisan Alternatif coalition was riding the crest of a wave, fueled by optimism that winning the next election was a real possibility. However in the last few months the BA wagon had lost steam and veered off the track. What happened?

One major reason could be PAS uncompromising stance on the Islamic state issue. A second reason is not the Sept 11 incident (skillfully exploited by the ruling party), but the developments in the local political landscape.

A third factor is the inherent weaknesses and in-fighting within BA itself. If BA does not acknowledge these factors it will follow the footsteps of a dodo and waddle into extinction.

In the wake of Anwar Ibrahims sacking and jailing, the concept of Islamic state and the promise of a just and corruption-free administration by PAS shone like a beacon in the dark.

This coupled with other developments such as the economic recession and the rise of Islamic awareness had benefitted PAS and BA in the last election.

Unfortunately, BA and especially PAS misinterpreted the result of the election and grew overconfident. Islamic state — an issue insufficiently debated prior to the election — became a point of contention and friction between PAS and DAP.

PAS, mistaking the mandate given by the rakyat as an endorsement for its concept of Islamic state, grew increasingly assertive and took an uncompromising position on the matter.

DAP, thrashed in the elections due to unhappiness among the non-Muslims precisely over the same issue, became more and more uncomfortable and ultimately withdrew from the opposition coalition.

Meanwhile, Umno and BN realised their mistakes and put countermeasures in place.

PAS stand on several issues and, as well as the Al-Maunah and KMM (Malaysian Mujahidin Group) incidents slowly eroded the support and respect that the Malay Malaysians had for PAS.

At the same time the Anwar issue was slowly and surely losing its emotive appeal. The ban on ceramah, ISA detention of Keadilan leaders, the infighting in BA over the Islamic state ambition of PAS shifted the balance of power from PAS to Umno.

The results of Sanggang, Teluk Kemang and the recent Indera Kayangan by-elections all clearly point to this shift.

Another major problem plaguing BA is Keadilans internal problems.

Many were disenchanted with Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismails weak leadership. And the party has failed to quickly establish itself as a major player in Malaysian politics. Originally, Keadilan was expected to lead BA and but it has ended up as a minor player in BA. Keadilan faces a bleak future.

It appears that leaders of BA have not fully grasped the gravity of the situation facing the coalition.

Unless BA re-engineers and reinvents itself quickly, it will be embarking on a death march in the next elections.