Forecasting anything of the future, however near it may be, is not a science but a matter of conjecture as voters are dynamic beings who may change their minds overnights to actions of the contesting parties or candidates. Apart from God, earthly mortals cannot foresee the future with exactitude.

With this caveat, I make the following general forecasts:

Barisan Nasional (BN) under the leadership of the more affable Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who is fondly known as Pak Lah, is poised to perform well on March 21. Based on the current popularity of the prime minister, obtaining a two-third majority of seats in the Dewan Rakyat is a foregone conclusion.

With the retirement of former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the 'hate' figure among the Malays is gone and the accommodating style of Pak Lah has warmed the hearts of this group of voters, including civil servants and intellectuals, who voted strongly for the opposition in 1999.

However, issues of corruption, abuse of power, independence of the judiciary and credibility of some Umno candidates remain talking points at coffee shops and stalls.

The jailed ex-deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim issue is still there but not as emotional or burning as in1999. But it cannot be underestimated because the injustice done to Anwar has created a sub-conscious effect on the intelligentsia in particular and the public in general.

Pak Lah's main problem is enemies within and not enemies without - particularly evident in Kelantan, Kedah, Federal Territory as well as in wild territories of Sabah and Sarawak.

Overzealous actions by authorities and one-sided reports by the mass media controlled by the BN also turn off some, if not, many people.

The battlegrounds

The main battlegrounds of Umno are clearly in the Malay heartlands of Kelantan, Terengganu, Perlis, Kedah, and some parts of Pahang.

In Kelantan, PAS remains strong while Umno's internal problems further undermine its chances of making any great leap forward. Mustapha Mohamed, though a capable and clean leader, pales in the shadow of ex-Umno senior vice-president Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who should have been the natural choice to lead Umno in the state. Neither the supporters of the Kelantan royalty and recalcitrant Ibrahim Ali find Mustapha senior or experienced enough to lead the charge.

While it appears to be a foregone conclusion that PAS will remain in power in the state, Umno's stake remains ambiguous both at the parliamentary and state level. Except for Gua Musang, the fortress of Tengku Razaleigh, other parliamentary seats remain elusive, including Jeli, where forces within Umno are busily trying to break through the PAS defence

In Terengganu, PAS appears confident of retaining the state government as evident by the foray of Mentri Besar Abdul Hadi Awang into other states right after nomination day. He only returned to Terengganu on Wednesday. This is certainly a sign of self-confidence.

However, Umno has cast its eyes on Besut, Kuala Terengganu, and Kemaman. Sources within PAS are confident of the former two but conceded that Kemaman is a toss up. However, the prospects are brighter for Umno to grab back some state seats to built the launch-pad for their final assault in the next poll.

In Perlis, the emergence of the charismatic Islamic scholar Dr Haron Din, spearheading PAS' thrust in the state has stirred much interest among the Muslim voters in the party. PAS won three state seats in 1999 and appears confident of making more gains. Whether it can win eight seats to capture the state government is a matter of conjecture as the blows and counter-blows will continue to the very last minute. It will be a close call.

In Kedah, Umno appears set to retake Kuala Kedah, Pokok Sena, Jerai (formerly known as Yan) while it looks like a toss up in Baling, Pendang, Sik, and Padang Terap. PAS incumbents of Kuala Kedah (Mohamad Sabu) and Pokok Sena (Mahfuz Omar) appear to have prepared for the worst by contesting in state seats too.

At the state level, Umno has slated better candidates to take on the challenge from PAS. Thus, prima facie it should at least maintain the status quo, if not regaining some lost ground. However, it cannot overlook the fact that there are at least 20 seats with more than 80 percent Malay voters and five seats with more than 70 percent Malay voters where PAS could exploit Islamic sentiments to its advantage.

Thus, barring major mistakes, BN should be safe to retain the state government. Whether PAS and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (Keadilan) can deny BN the two-majority remains a riddle.

In Perak, PAS incumbent Hassan Ali and new face Muhamad Ismi Mat Taib will face stiff challenge from Umno to defend Parit Buntar and Parit respectively. Both seats look like a toss up too. But PAS will also face a strong challenge from Umno in three state seats (Belanja, Titi Serong, and Gunong Semanggol) it won in 1999.

PAS Perak's Ahmad Awang will embark on an uphill task to unseat incumbent Deputy Home Minister Zainal Abidin Zin in Bagan Serai while its Muslimat deputy leader Dr Lo Lo Ghazali will slug it out with Gerakan's Tan Lian Hoe in Bukit Gantang. Lo Lo's chances of winning suddenly dimmed when BN shifted PPP president M Kayveas to Taiping.

In Selangor, PAS' best parliamentary hope lies in Gombak and it could not defend Kajang and Sg Besar state seats because of the redrawing of the electoral boundaries. It has only Sg Burong and Gombak Setia to defend. Both are tough to defend. The large non-Muslim population in the state inhibited PAS' opportunity to defend the seats it won in 1999.

In Pahang, Jerantut and Pekan are the main hopes for PAS but the ground sentiment is not as favourable as in 1999. In addition, Najib Abdul Razak is now deputy premier. It faces an uphill task to win six state seats again for the same reason.

In Johor, except for the lottery strike in Senggerang where PAS won by default, its prospects of winning more seats appear dim.

Fate of DAP, Keadilan

On the DAP front, the party suffered from its association with PAS because of the latter's Islamic state platform that scared the Chinese.

It won only 10 parliamentary seats (Penang four, Perak one, Federal Territory four, and Melaka one). At best, it may win an additional eight seats.

The 18 possible seats are five in Perak (Ipoh Timur, Taiping, and Beruas or Ipoh Barat) and one in Selangor (PJ Utara), five in Penang (Tanjong, Bagan, Bukit Mertajam, Bukit Gelugor, and Jelutong), four in Federal Territory (Seputeh, Kepong, Bukit Bintang, and Cheras), one in Melaka (Kota Melaka), and two from Sarawak (Kuching and Sibu) .

In Penang, DAP has sunk to its lowest ebb as Chinese voters there appeared to have sent an unmistakable message to the party that is should not upset the state leadership under Gerakan with MCA playing the supporting role to ensure the chief minister will remain a Chinese.

But they have other ideas about parliamentary seats as they voted in four DAP candidates. Of the six parliamentary seats, at best it could win five seats as its Malay candidate in the predominantly Chinese Bukit Bendera was a give away to Gerakan.

In Perak, with DAP chief Lim Kit Siang spearheading the thrust, he may create the coattail effect to win Ipoh Timur, Taiping (if Umno, Gerakan and Gerakan grassroots reject Kayveas), Beruas (if Indian voters responded to the SMS to go against Gerakan chief Lim Keng Yaik), and Ipoh Barat (if the 22.5 percent Indian votes rally strongly behind M Kulasegaran), and Batu Gajah, where incumbent Fong Po Kuan draws strong support from fellow Menglembu voters and MCA is strong in Tronoh with Jelapang voters making the decider.

In Selangor, state DAP chief Ronnie Liu will take on incumbent Chew Mei Fun in PJ Utara again.

With the BN assured of a two-third majority in the Dewan Rakyat, the most sophisticated urban voters may opt for an additional opposition voice in parliament as a check on the government despite their liking for the PM.

In the Federal Territory, Kepong, Seputeh, Bukit Bintang, and Cheras have always been DAP strongholds and the more sophisticated urban voters are likely to maintain the status quo despite the good feeling created by the new PM.

In Melaka, Kota Melaka has always voted the opposition since the late Tan Kee Gark (Malaya Party) captured it in 1964.

As for Parti Keadilan Rakyat (Keadilan), the party won only one parliamentary seat (Permatang Pauh) in Penang and four seats in the east coast - three in Kelantan (Kota Bharu, Peringat, and Tanah Merah), and one (Kemaman) in Trengganu.

With the Anwar issue less emotional though not totally forgotten, its performance depends on the charisma of individual candidates and the ability of PAS, which has good grassroots machinery, to deliver the Malay votes.

It may create an upset in the following constituencies - Sabak Bernam, Kapar and PJ Selatan (Selangor), Batu and Wangsa Maju (Federal Territory) and Lumut (Perak).


HO KIN CHAI is a former journalist and lawyer. He holds a MA (Hons) in political studies and LLB (Hons).