PAS' confidence in Kedah may be its undoing

GE13 WATCH PAS vice-president Mahfuz Omar is confident about Pakatan Rakyat sweeping all 15 parliamentary seats in Kedah. However, he may be counting chickens as some of these seats now appear to be shaky for Pakatan.

Analysts believe it will not be easy for Pakatan to make a clean sweep in this northern peninsula state, especially in the problematic seats of Padang Terap, Jerai, Sik, Jerlun and Alor Setar.

In 2008 Pakatan won 11 parliamentary seats, with PAS taking six and PKR, five, while the BN bagged four.

Pakatan had a comfortable win in nine of the seats: Padang Serai (11,738-vote majority), Sungai Petani (9,381), Baling (7,613), Kuala Kedah (7,018), Pokok Sena (5,731), Kulim Bandar Baru (5,583), Pendang (4,073), Merbok (3,098) and Jerai (2,299).

The other two were narrow wins for Pakatan - Sik (481) and Padang Terap (majority 369).

BN, on the other hand had comfortable wins in Kubang Pasu (7,060-vote majority), Langkawi (4,970) and Jerlun (2,205), while its scraped through in Alor Setar, with a narrow 184-vote margin.

It is expected that the major clashes between the two coalitions will be in three seats - Padang Terap, Sik (both held by Pakatan) and Alor Setar (held by BN), with Pakatan having the advantage in the Padang Terap and Sik constituencies.

It is expected that the highly-publicised friction between Kedah Menteri Besar Azizan Abdul Razak (above) and state executive councillor and state PAS deputy commissioner Phahrolrazi Zawawi could affect two other Pakatan parliamentary constituencies - Jerai and Kuala Kedah.

Logging and infighting to hurt PAS

In Padang Terap, while PAS candidate Mohd Nasir Zakaria defeated BN's Paduka Ghazali in the 2008 polls, the two state seats under the constituency - Kuala Nerang and Pedu - went to the BN.

Kuala Nerang was a narrow win for BN's Syed Sobri Syed Hashim but former menteri besar Mahdzir Khalid defended Pedu with a comfortable 2,733 margin.

Nasir is also saddled with the issue of forest clearing in the Pedu region, which has stoked discontent on the ground despite the state's claim that this was to make way for its ladang rakyat or people's farming project to raise the incomes of the people.

However despite PAS' woes, BN's Syed Sobri may not have an easy time to defend his seat as he himself is mired with financial problems and bankruptcy issues.

Meanwhile in the marginal seat of Sik, observers say BN may be able to field a stronger candidate than the last one, and with internal sabotage within Umno being brought under control this time, it could well shore up its chances.

In Jerai, PAS may face a tough fight to retain the seat since much of its majority in GE12 came from one of its three state seats - Azizan's Sungai Limau.

Jerai MP Mohd Firdaus Jaafar appears to be a strong candidate to retain the seat, but the fued between Azizan and Phahrolrazi (left) may whittle away support for the menteri besar in his own seat.

The seemingly widening rift between the two leaders could well weaken PAS ability to hold on to Jerai, observers feel.

On the up side, the two other state seats under the BN in Jerai are seeing dipping support for the incumbent parties - Gurun under MCA's Leong Yong Kong, in particular, saw an 80 percent reduction in majority, from 7,071 votes in 2004 to 1,554 votes.

Likewise, in the Guar Cempedak state seat. BN's Ku Abd Rahman Ku Ismail saw his margin nearly halved from a 3,966-vote majority in 2004 to 1,759 in 2008.

Pakatan's growing influence in these seats and an increased voter population is likely to pose a serious challenge to BN.

BN's shaky seats

BN is also seen as facing serious risks in Alor Setar and Jerlun, which it won with tissue-thin margins in 2008.

In particular, Housing Minister Chor Chee Heung's Alor Setar seat is in danger as his winning margin was slashed by a mammoth 99 percent in 2008 - 15,515 votes to 184.

The seat is also adjacent to strong PAS and PKR seats, and its urban composition means the voters are better informed, with the Chinese in particular expected to favour Pakatan.

Alor Setar's increase in voters is small, only 1,644 over the past four years, which many believe will heighten Pakatan's chances of winning the seat.

Meanwhile, the BN's gains in Jerlun have been minuscule, and its Kota Siputeh assemblyperson, Abu Hasan Sariff, was embroiled in a court case over his seat being declared vacant by the state assembly as a result of his absence from its sittings.

Though the increase in voters in the constituency is considered small, the two state seats under it - Kota Siputeh and Ayer Hitam - are now seen as hot seats.

Pendang, PAS' traditional stronghold, appears to be one of the safest seats, as the party saw a further increased in its majority in GE12.

The presence of PAS deputy president Mohamad Sabu (right), who is expected to contest there, will strengthen its hold on the seat. Pendang incumbent Hayati Othman is likely to make way for the party strongman by going for a state seat, possibly Sungai Tiang.

BN also has a chance in taking back the state seat of Pengkalan Kundor, under the Kuala Kedah parliamentary constituency, as the incumbent Phahrolrazi may be moved to the Jerlun parliamentary seat to take on Mukhriz Mahathir.

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