MIC president Samy Vellu's nemesis MG Pandithan would not have hoped for much when he first asked the former to follow the steps of former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad in stepping down and letting others to take over.

However, prevailing political events in the country had given Pandithan some hope in achieving the unachievable just months ago.

No one can dispute that Samy Vellu was buoyed by his unprecedented ninth term as the president of his party. He was elected unopposed and he had always used the fact that the community wants him to continue to allay accusations of being power crazy.

But with Mahathir's retirement, and his advice to veteran leaders to follow suit, changed the scenario somehow.

There is no doubt that this has put Samy Vellu under some pressure to let go of his power grip. His deputy S Subramaniam has been waiting in the sideline for the past 20 years.

Good timing

It must be said that the timing of Pandithan, an old ally of Subramaniam, to call for Samy Vellu's departure was almost perfect to compound more pressure on the MIC leader.

The Indian Progressive Party president proved his political cunningness or perhaps a blind gamble - by claiming that his party would have been accepted into the ruling coalition (BN) if Subramaniam had been the MIC president.

It is no secret that Samy Vellu is the lone dissenting voice in the BN supreme council over this matter. The untiring hard work by the "red battalion" of the IPF during elections have been acknowledged by top leaders of the country but the party is still not accepted into BN largely due to its unanimous decision-making policy.

Samy Vellu has never hidden his contempt for Pandithan - once a vice president in MIC but dismissed from the party in 1988 for allegedly playing caste politics and had said that MIC alone was sufficient to represent the community in the coalition.

The fact that Subramaniam had failed to respond to this speculative assumption by Pandithan raised many eyebrows.

Backdoor agreement?

Suddenly questions were being asked if there was a tacit understanding between Pandithan and Subramaniam to dispose of Samy Vellu.

This presumption gained credence when Subramaniam, after he finally decided to talk to the press, lashed out at PPP leader M Kayveas who had earlier ticked off Pandithan over the Samy Vellu issue.

Kayveas had come out supporting Samy Vellu to the extent of claiming that he was the only leader that could help the community.

Subramaniam rebutted this by saying that such a statement was belittling other MIC leaders.

For the keen observers, points to note were that Subramaniam had not backed his president, and neither has he rejected Pandithan's comments.

Lull before storm

It has been three weeks now since Pandithan's first call for Samy Vellu to step down. In between various other issues from the mismanagement of MIC investment arm Maika to lying to the King - have cropped up.

In between, there were many accusation and counter claims as well as tens of police reports lodged by all affected parties.

Things have seemed to cool off, but it is more likely a lull before a storm. Pandithan, many believe, will be revealing more of Samy Vellu's follies.

The next big battle could come later in December when Maika holds its annual meeting. "Ordinary members" are expected to raise various mismanagement issues at the meeting, questioning and personally blaming Samy Vellu for the loss of millions of ringgit in dud investments.

The man who can put an end to all of this is Subramaniam, the man whom Pandithan says and wants to head MIC.

Subramaniam has to openly declare his support for his president, and thus silencing Pandithan, or he should be brave enough to say the time is ripe for Samy Vellu to go.

Thus far, Subramaniam has failed to do any of that.

Subra's move

He has waited patiently till now to assume the leadership after Samy Vellu. However he is also aware that the longer he waits, the brighter are the chances of another high ranking MIC leader contesting against him for that post.

On the other hand, if he decides to go for broke by openly supporting Pandithan, he fully knows that in the event of a failure, his future in the party is gone forever.

He has to break his silence and intervene immediately. The most diplomatic way for him to solve this open war between Samy Vellu and Pandithan, and by assuring that he too benefits from it, is by suggesting a middle way that is acceptable to both leaders.

Subramaniam can ask Pandithan to call off his attacks by persuading Samy Vellu to fix a date to retire and allow him to take over. Finding a date should not be a problem, as the impending general election will give a good opportunity for a new leadership.

Pandithan should not have a problem with this, as his main aim of getting rid of Samy Vellu will be accomplished. On top of that, the new MIC leader might not even object to IPF's application to join BN.

But why should Samy Vellu comply with this middle way? After all, such an understanding will only strengthen the notion that Subramaniam and Pandithan have been in collusion from the very beginning.

Samy's saga

Samy Vellu's 24-year grip on the party is compounded by the fact that he is unopposed and unquestioned by anyone in the party. The moment Subramaniam openly questions the public spat, Samy Vellu is smart enough to know that failure to comply with any peace plan put forward by his deputy could mean a possible revolt. He is also smart enough to realise if winds of change are permeating in the air.

His deputy is said to be favoured by the new premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who, for his own political gain, would want a new and fresh team for the elections.

The signs look good for Subramaniam and his failure to seize the opportunity will only pave the way for Samy Vellu to make full use of his political instincts to kill off Pandithan, and even perhaps Subramaniam himself, after a long, protracted public battle.

The longer this saga continues, the worst it is for the Indian community in this country. This community cannot afford to have its leaders absorbed in fighting to protect their own political lives, instead of trying to uplift the community.

K KABILAN is the chief news editor of malaysiakini.