As the chosen unelected (by the party) expected leader of Umno, incoming Malaysian prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi will face a litany of challenges.

The ability to meet these challenges will be shaped by his own leadership style. Abdullah is believed to be personable, thoughtful and consensus-oriented. It is these traits that have allowed him to repetitively win party support, even after his decision to join Umno's Team B (faction) in the 1980s.

At the same time, Abdullah is believed to be a slow decision maker. Perhaps more than any other, this feature has fostered anxiety among those supporting Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad (photo) and who are accustomed to a decisive leadership style.

Mahathir will step down on Oct 31. While it is clearly far too early to predict Abdullah's tenure, there is a set of dilemmas that he will face upon taking power from Nov 1. The most significant of these is the need to maintain economic legitimacy.

One of Mahathir's legacies is an emphasis on economic performance. The consistent high levels of growth have created a precedent that Umno elites and Malaysians alike will expect to be met.

Economic legitimacy has taken on more importance as the regime has become more authoritarian. Badawi will be expected to maintain growth levels, in a period where higher deficits limit his ability to use public expenditure to spur growth and the international climate is less amenable to investment in Malaysia.

While the Malaysian economy has rebounded since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, it has yet to find a new engine of growth. The pressure to perform economically will be high, and may become Abdullah's Achilles heel if not achieved quickly.

At the same time, he will be expected to address perceptions of rising Islamic extremism in Malaysia.

As Home Minister, Abdullah has taken a hard line on extremism, arresting numerous accused terrorists. He has not established himself as a supporter of human rights, particularly civil liberties.

Nevertheless, his image as a moderate with Islamic credentials will work to his advantage. Yet, here too, Abdullah faces the difficult challenge of finding the right balance between tackling extremism, not alienating an increasingly religious Malay electorate and dealing with demands for greater political openness.

Rebuilding institutions

In order to illustrate that he is different from Mahathir, Abdullah will also face the need to rebuild institutions, which have weakened under Mahathir's tenure. Unlike his predecessor, he needs the institutions to consolidate his own authority to a greater degree and thus has an incentive to bring about changes.

The three most pivotal institutions are Umno, the bureaucracy and the judiciary. While each institution involves unique obstacles and will involve decisive action and a degree of political space to initiate reforms, the common areas of institutional reform are:
- increasing accountability;
- increasing capability;
- addressing corruption; and
- promoting regeneration based on merit rather than personal loyalty.

Abdullah will have to decide which of these he is willing and capable of reforming.

Of these, the most likely changes are to be in the bureaucracy in the area of meritocracy, since Abdullah has his roots in the bureaucracy during a period when meritocracy was highly valued.

While the fight against corruption has been a consistent initiative heralded by Abdullah and his supporters, reinforced by his 'Mr Clean' image, the practical ability to make changes will depend on the political space he secures, which is unlikely to be significant in the short term.

The issue of meritocracy raises another challenge for Abdullah - tackling the legacy of the New Economic Policy (NEP).

Although this affirmative action policy is known officially by another name since 1990, National Development Policy, recent debate, largely driven by the need to increase Malaysia's economic competitiveness, has called into question some of the fundamentals of this policy, from education quotas to ownership patterns.

Abdullah will need to maintain the support of the Malay community, many of whom view the NEP as a political cornerstone of their power, while at the same time increase competitiveness among the Malays through greater multi-ethnic competition.

A change in the NEP would also be favourably received by non-Malays, who perceive the policy as ethnically discriminatory.

There is a growing concern among Chinese Malaysians who believe that their political power is being eroded, largely due to the changing demographics in Malaysia that have increased the number of Malays compared to the other communities.

Abdullah, like Mahathir was earlier, is an unknown quantity. He will need to shore up support among non-Malays and show a commitment to minority rights, both within the respective parties that represent these communities and for himself, without upsetting Umno or the Malay community.

Managing Mahathir

The main task for Abdullah politically will be to rebuild Malay electoral support. In the short term, his honeymoon period will boost his support, but in the long term he will have to address the legacy of the (sacking of former deputy premier) Anwar Ibrahim issue and weaker support among younger Malay voters.

This ties closely into his future within Umno and credibility as a national Malay leader. This will have global aspects as well, as he builds an international profile in his own right.

In facing each of these challenges, Abdullah will have to manage his predecessor; he will have to manage Mahathir. Although Mahathir is highly likely to retire from office, as he has repetitively claimed, this will not necessarily signal a departure from political life.

The only surviving prime minister previously, Tunku Abdul Rahman, continued to play a role in political life as a regular newspaper columnist and in the 1980s as an active supporter of key Umno members in party infighting.

Mahathir will likely play a role as well, which remains undefined. This role will particularly be prominent on the international stage, where he has played an increasing role in the last third of his tenure.

Given the scope of elite contestation, Abdullah's style and the political dilemmas that he will inherit, change will likely occur slowly and incrementally. Some Malaysians want this, others are less optimistic.

Each of Abdullah's predecessors established themselves gradually, including Mahathir.

Time and political fortune will tell whether Abdullah has the political acumen to emerge from Mahathir's shadow and be elected by Umno members and Malaysians in his own right.


DR BRIDGET WELSH is assistant professor in Southeast Asian studies at John Hopkins University-SAIS, Washington DC. Part 1 of her article was posted yesterday.


The author referred to the following sources for the article, which first appeared in Woodrow Wilson Center Asia Program's Special Report, and which will soon be published in a book "Reflections: The Mahathir Years'.

  • See A. B. Shamsul. 1988. "The 'Battle Royal': The UMNO Elections of 1987," in Mohammed Ayoob and Ng Chee Yuen (eds). Southeast Asian Affairs, 1988, pp. 170-188.
  • See Bridget Welsh, Forthcoming. "Real Change?: Elections in the Reformasi Era," in Edmund Terence Gomez, The State of Malaysia: Ethnicity, Equity and Reform, London: RoutledgeCurzon, pp. 162-193.

  • Edmund Terence Gomez and Jomo, K.S. 1999. Malaysia's Political Economy: Politics, Patronage and Profits. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • See Ong Kian Ming and Bridget Welsh. Crisis and Reaction: Malaysian Elections under the Microscope. Manuscript in progress.
  • A.C. Milner. 1982. Kerajaan: Malay Political Culture on the Eve of Colonial Rule. Tucson, Arizona: University of Arizona Press.