The 54th Umno Annual General Assembly (AGM) which starts today, will see the last appearance of its president Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who will step down in October after leading the party and country for more than two decades.

During the meet, the outgoing premier will undoubtedly be showered with accolades. However, there is another issue which is threatening to steal the limelight: who will be incoming premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's deputy?

Delegates are expecting hints on the likely candidate as Abdullah has remained tightlipped about this since Mahathir announced his decision to step down at last year's party meet.

The best choice

Many feel that Najib Razak would be the best candidate. Not only did he win the party vice-presidency with the highest number of votes, he is also the preferred choice of Mahathir.

Despite this, Abdullah said he will only name his deputy when he assumes the premiership in October.

This reasoning, logical as it may seem, did not go down well with those aligned to Najib while certain quarters began to speculate that Abdullah may have someone else in mind.

Apart from Najib, there are two more elected vice-presidents - Muhammad Muhd Taib and Muhyiddin Yassin.

Najib's supporters, who have been working hard to campaign for him, are expected to gauge the delegates' sentiments on this issue during the three-day assembly.

The comeback

There is also another rumour circulating that former Umno heavyweights such as Tengku Razaleigh and Musa Hitam may also choose to contest for posts.

The duo had combined forces in the 1987 Umno election but failed to oust Mahathir, who won by a mere 47 votes.

This later led to Umno being disbanded and subsequently re-registered as Umno Baru while Razaleigh left the party to form the splinter Semangat 46.

However, he returned to Umno in 1996 and was later appointed the party's Kelantan chairperson. He was replaced by supreme council member Mustapha Mohamad after the party's dismal showing in the state during the 1999 general election.

Since then, Razaleigh has maintained a low-profile and avoided questions on party matters.

Although many quarters in Umno, including Mahathir himself, have denied the possibility of a victory if either of the two challenged Abdullah, the party's political history is riddled with surprises.

So, the next question is whether Abdullah could withstand a challenge from the two, who in their previous attempt came close to unseating Mahathir.

Mahathir had scrapped through that contest due to the votes from Pahang Umno which was then under the leadership of Najib. Since this incident, the latter has always been in the premier's good books and enjoyed a meteoric rise in the party and government.

After the 1987 contest, many of Abdullah's contemporaries in Umno decided to support Razaleigh and joined his new party. However, Abdullah chose to remain with Mahathir in Umno Baru.

Considering these scenarios, if Abdullah was to appoint Najib as his deputy, it must be noted that both have directly or indirectly helped Mahathir to get party members to support Umno Baru.

'Mr Clean'

As 'Mr Clean' ( dubbed so because of his untainted image), Abdullah's decision to remain with Mahathir had greatly influenced others to do the same.

Although he may lack a strong support base, Abdullah is nevertheless a man respected and liked by party members.

This was proven in the 1996 party election, when he managed to recapture the vice-president post despite losing it in the previous contest to the 'Vision Team' - led by jailed ex-deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim and comprised Najib and the two current vice presidents.

The challenge may not be mounted against Abdullah in the coming polls, which has yet to be fixed, but in the subsequent contest and his decision not to announce his deputy as soon as possible may also bode ill for him in the future.

In an interview with a local daily last Sunday, Mahathir said his biggest worry was not about Abdullah's capability of running the government but the possibility of certain quarters within the party renewing their political ambitions once he retires.

Although Abdullah may try to avoid the deputy issue at the annual meet, there is strong possibility that Najib's supporters may exert pressure on him and may try to force him to comment on the matter during his winding-up speech.

This could put the incoming premier in a spot. Although he was given a free hand to choose his deputy, he can't afford to make the wrong choice, especially when Najib commands a formidable support base.

A wrong move could prove costly to Abdullah politically and there may be factions in the party who would withhold their support for him and his candidates during the general election.

History lesson

A recap of Umno's past could prove useful to Abdullah. Prior to the appointment of Mahathir as his deputy, there were strong rumours that then prime minister Hussein Onn would choose the then home minister Ghazali Shafie.

This led the then three vice-presidents - Mahathir, Razaleigh and Ghafar Baba - to voice their opposition and demanded that the prime minister sticks to tradition by appointing one of them.

Although they allowed Hussein to make his choice, which was Mahathir, there was still a challenge mounted against the chosen candidate in 1987.

This proves that although the president is allowed to make the choice, his choice is not necessarily one that is welcomed by everyone.

As far as Abdullah is concerned, if he makes a choice contrary to what party members wished for, then he would have to face the consequences, which may not necessarily be immediate.

In view of this, it would be in his own best interest to make the politically correct choice.