Amid the continuing debate of whether the double resignations of former MCA president and transport minister from the party and government was forced upon him by Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, another speculation is also becoming rife:

Whether, or when Dr Ling Liong Sik (right) would be held legally accountable for the public allegations levelled against him by, among others, his protege-turned-nemesis, Soh Chee Wen (left).

Of course, for Ling's die-hard supporters, the other side of the same speculation applies: whether or when Ling will sue Soh for libel and defamation.

These are of public concerns and interests, but there are also MCA leaders who care more about private o­nes.

The ministerial vacancy created by Ling in the transport ministry has certainly sparked off another round of intense lobbying and re-positioning in the party as well as government.

New transport minister

That the vacancy has not been immediately filled by anyone other than o­ng Ka Ting is a strong piece of circumstantial evidence that MCA has still a long way to go before it settles down again.

Besides being the protege of Ling and the new president of the party, o­ng (right), 48, is also the housing and local government minister.

Why is the new deputy president Chan Kong Choy (left), 47, not immediately appointed as transport minister?

According to a May 27 special report in Sin Chew Daily, o­ng would submit his new list of MCA ministers, deputy ministers and parliamentary secretaries to Mahathir for approval, and the new transport minister would "probably" be Dr Fong Chan o­nn, not Chan Kong Choy.

Economist Fong (left), 58 , is the current human resources minister. A staunch supporter of Ling and Team A, the English-educated leader is also, measured according to the number of votes obtained in the 1999 party election, the most senior vice president.

The transport ministry, held by Ling since 1986, has always been regarded by MCA leaders to be a "more rewarding" portfolio because it has stronger business links with the private sector.

The report also speculates that Chan Kong Choy would be made the new human resources minister.

Health minister Chua Jui Meng (right), 60, is not mentioned at all in the special report, presumably with the belief that his position in the cabinet is beyond the power of MCA and its new president, or the influence of the Team A-controlled or Team A-friendly newspapers.

However, a May 27 news analysis in the Oriental Daily News opines that Mahathir "might consider the influence of "Chua before making a final decision o­n the cabinet reshuffle. Oriental Daily News is widely perceived to be more sympathetic to Team B.

Ong Ka Chuan, the elder brother of Ka Ting has also been reported as saying that Perak MCA "would like to have representatives in the federal government" if there is a cabinet reshuffle. Ka Chuan is also the chairperson of Perak MCA as well as the national organising secretary.

Vacant vice-presidencies

Inside the party organisation, a scramble is expected for the two vice-president posts vacated by o­ng and Chan.

According to a May 29 report in Sin Chew Daily, the Selangor MCA deputy chairperson Donald Lim has publicly declared that the positions should be left vacant until the 2005 party election.

Lim (left) was also quoted as saying that Selangor MCA would "certainly" field candidates to contest for the two vice-presidencies in 2005. Lim, a Team A supporter, is the parliamentary secretary to the transport ministry.

The central committee meeting o­n June 13 is expected to discuss whether to immediately fill up the two vacant vice-presidencies or not. If so, the question then would be "by who?"

The decision could also be charged as "undemocratic" by aspirants like Lim if they are not appointed. Regional distribution of power seems to be a main factor here.

But if the vacancies are left open until 2005 as suggested by Lim, then occasions and pretexts would be created immediately for middle-ranking leaders all over the country to 'open fire' o­n each other again.

Veterans o­n way out

The consideration of "equitable and fair" representation of regional powers would also again destabilise the party at the grassroots level.

Of course, if and when aspirants to top party positions are more in number than existing vacancies can accommodate, some veterans could be forced to leave.

There are already speculations that party treasurer William Chek and secretary-general Dr Ting Chew Peh are targets among the young turks. Both Chek and Ting are Ling loyalists.

It seems that o­ng Ka Chuan is also under heavy pressure to quit the position of national organising secretary.

In the three-year power struggle, Ka Chuan has been widely accused of "abusing" his position as the national organising secretary to assist his younger brother and Team A in intra-party campaigning.

In April last year, Team B leaders, including Chan Kong Choy and Chua Jui Meng publicly alleged that there were many phantom members in the party's membership list.

If these patterns and trends continue unabated, it is very likely that MCA would continue to be highly unstable and disunited until at least after 2005.

In fact, it could be argued that with the resignations of Ling and his deputy Lim Ah Lek (right), the power struggles has become more uncontrollable and unpredictable.

The party would most probably enter a period of regional or local warlordism as the centre continues to be weak and fragmented.

JAMES WONG WING o­n is chief analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM). Wong is a former member of Parliament (1990-1995) and a former columnist for the Sin Chew Jit Poh Chinese daily (now Sin Chew Daily). He read political science and economics at the Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. While in Sin Chew, he and a team of journalists won the top awards of Malaysian Press Institute (MPI) for 1998 and 1999.