When a minister of any rank offers to quit, whether by a letter that is dated or undated, as in the case of Malaysia's longstanding Transport Minister and MCA president, Dr Ling Liong Sik, effectively the minister is immediately rendered a lame duck. His role inevitably becomes captured by growing uncertainty through rising competing political interests.

Already there's much speculation over Ling's offer to resign from the MCA and his ministry. More interesting is that Ling's letter of resignation, whenever it was tendered to Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, was undated. Adding to Malaysia's looming political problems is Mahathir's "prerogative" of when and whether he will accept Ling's departure.

While it may be Mahathir's sanction to decide Ling's fate, Mahathir must be reminded of his moral and political duty to act not "for the government's interest" but, uppermost, in the interest of the nation and all Malaysians. His government must be responsible to the Parliament, not to Mahathir or to the dominant party, Umno, which with the MCA and other minor ethnic-based parties form the ruling Barisan Nasional government.

But what could be Mahathir's reason for considering the Ling matter "for the government's interest"? After all, in the totality of Malaysia's divisive race politics, the Transport Ministry is no more vital than the Works Ministry, long held by MIC chief S Samy Vellu. Both portfolios represent political tokenism by Umno in the political bargain that underscores the Malay dominated ruling coalition.

Whatever, the Ling poser is a desperate attempt by him at rallying support for his besieged position against MCA rabble-rousers led by his erstwhile deputy president, Lim Ah Lek. By depicting himself as political underdog, Ling wants party rank-and-file and other Chinese to see he's being unfairly hounded by his enemies and tacitly by Umno right-wingers and Gerakan, another BN partner whose chief, Dr Lim Keng Yaik, has been pouring boiling oil on Ling's emboldened and defiant political posturing since 2000.

Only Mahathir can save Ling's scalp, even if Mahathir is peeved at his long-time loyal foot soldier. Ling's ploy is thus partly an act of deference and self-sacrifice to his political master.

Troubled Ling

Mostly, though, Ling is in desperate trouble. Which explains why his resignation letter to Mahathir was undated. Ling, hedging his bets, said he wouldn't retract his letter as it was undated. And that there were "no plans" to change his end of term, although "by January 2005 the succession problem has to be solved before I leave".

Still, Ling has probably overplayed his hand on at least two fronts, which makes his position even more untenable. One is his tacit but adamant seeking of payback from Mahathir and Umno for saving BN in the 1999 general election from a defeat as humiliating as the one suffered in the 1969 polls. After all, in 1999, Umno's popularity and legitimacy plummeted, losing parliamentary seats from 88 to 71 and state seats from 231 to 175. And BN's share of the popular vote crumbled from 65 percent to 56 percent.

More, Ling had failed abominably on the recent language switch issue despite having reached a 'compromise' with an irked Umno. Still, education in Malaysia is the big loser. Also permanently lost is the MCA's long-held bid to start a Chinese university (the Merdeka University). Ling's rapid move to buy out Chinese newspapers Nanyang Siang Pau and China Press had deeply angered Umno right-wingers, as did his reluctance to sack the two Penang MCA state assembly representatives whose conscience stopped them from voting against opposition DAP's motion over the scandalous RM1.02 billion outer ring road project on Penang isle.

But it's unclear if Umno has regained lost ground among Malay voters. Probably not, judging by the body language among Malays who'd suffered from the Asian crisis and the malice-thriving nature of Malaysian politics over the Mahathir government-orchestrated Anwar Ibrahim caper. Which explains Mahathir's teary dramatics at the Umno general assembly last July, when he announced his retirement this October a hideously self-serving attempt to win broader Malay sympathy and dragnet more non-Malay support.

Ling's theatrics aside, Mahathir is frantically calculating Umno and BN's political future. Not that Mahathir needs Ling as minister or for him to helm the fractured MCA to win the next poll. Now it's whether Mahathir has enough time before October to play kingmaker and influence a smooth power transition within the MCA. Ling is hoping Mahathir will engineer his protege, Ong Ka Ting, to grab the party's reins.

Mahathir's dilemma

But Mahathir is also acutely aware of Ah Lek's growing influence. More important, the MCA is hopelessly split and Mahathir is fearful MCA members and other Chinese swinging voters, disenchanted with the leadership and the protracted brawling, could boost Gerakan, which barely controls Penang state with Umno, or worse, drift over to the DAP.

Another BN whacking at the next polls, around December, could be easily delivered by rising protest votes. And given elections are held every five years, a massive political ground shift will severely test government and policymaking.

But it is Umno that faces far greater embarrassing loss to the radical fundamentalist PAS, which thinks it'll pick up sizable disgruntled Malay votes. Mahathir's other dilemma: Not only the sputtering economy and saving Malaysia Inc, but if war between the US and Iraq breaks out soon and becomes protracted, and Mahathir does not take a more hardline, pro-Islamist posture and condemns the US in the way he has Australia, even more Malay votes will flow to PAS.

All of which raises some interesting questions. On the timing of the next election, odds are the polls will be brought forward to September. Forget a snap poll: Too many difficult political conundrums needing delicate resolution. More interesting is whether Mahathir thinks a post-October poll is winnable with the untested Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi at the helm.

Ling, though, is finished, and Samy Vellu isn't far behind. Besides, Ling won't want to hang around when Abdullah takes over, having seriously rubbed the DPM up the wrong way a few times. But Abdullah must be wondering, as Anwar had, if Mahathir's days are truly drawing to an end.

MANJIT BHATIA is with the School of International Business and Asian & International Studies at Griffith University, Australia