It was not a smooth-sailing year for all political parties in the country. It was a year that saw Umno needing to look into the credentials of its second-rung leaders to replace the departing Dr Mahathir Mohamad, PAS having to appoint an acting president after the untimely death of its leader Fadzil Noor and MCA still battling enemies within and without.

The year also saw one of Sarawak's oldest parties, Sarawak National Party (Snap), being deregistered and the immediate birth of its replacement, Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (SPDP). At the same time, Parti Sosialis Malaysia is still trying to get registered and is now in its third year of court battle with the government over the matter.

With the general election widely expected anytime next year, all these political parties will have to re-look at their strategies and form smart partnerships in order to make something out of the election. Below is a rundown on how some of the major political parties in the country are expected to perform next year.

Fighting for places

Umno: Next year will be an interesting one for Umno as after leading the party for 22 years, president Dr Mahathir Mohamad will finally retire. His deputy Abdullah Ahmad Badawi will succeed him. There is no doubt Mahathir's departure will leave a huge void which the other leaders will find difficult to fill.

The party election has been postponed until after the general election due in November 2004 but widely expected by the third quarter of next year. The postponement of party election will ensure a smooth transition of power in the top party hierarchy. The identity of Abdullah's deputy in both party and government is also almost settled, with present vice president Najib Abdul Razak looking ever likely the most appropriate candidate.

What the party will do next October is to move Abdullah and Najib one rung higher. Najib's elevation will leave a void in the party vice presidency but the two remaining vice presidents, Muhammad Muhd Taib and Muhyiddin Yassin, will want to ensure that they are more than able to handle the pressure so that they can retain their posts come party election. When that happens, the polls for the three vice presidency slot will be an interesting one with many aspiring Umno leaders expected to battle it out.

The party will also try to gain some lost grounds in the general election. It is important for leaders like Abdullah and Najib not only to win their parliamentary seats, but also to win handsomely. This is especially true in Najib's case as in the last general election, he won by a narrow margin of only 241 votes.

Several other party leaders, especially those in the cabinet as well as in the party supreme council, will also be looking to do well in the general election to make their claims to party posts.

On its performance in the general election, the party is quietly confident of winning back some of the lost Malay votes, especially after the constituency redelineation exercise.

Rivalry in coalition

MCA: 2002 has been annus horribilis for MCA. Party troubles that started in 2001 just kept snowballing into this year and it does not look as though next year will be any better. The peace deal between warring party leaders is crumbling and an open warfare looks imminent again. The leaders are finding it difficult to agree on anything at the moment.

The party has already irked Umno by stating its opposing stand in the language switch issue. Its problems are further aggravated by the disciplinary problems faced by its two Penang representatives. The party is under pressure from both Umno and Gerakan, both rivals for control in the Penang state assembly, to take a much sterner action against the duo than just giving them indefinite suspension.

The Barisan Nasional supreme council meeting in the beginning of the year will decide on how to deal with the errant duo. This will surely put pressure on party president Dr Ling Liong Sik. There are already rumours that he will be forced to resign from his post soon, and this might just come through next year. The party would then want the new leadership, most probably helmed by Ling's deputy and rival Lim Ah Lek until proper party elections are held, to lead the party in the general election.

Gerakan: Generally expected to have a quiet year but will enjoy piling pressure on MCA, especially by seeking action against more MCA Penang leaders over their role in opposing the Gerakan-sponsored road project in the island. It will also aspire to do one better than its 'rival' MCA to back its claim that it represents the Chinese community better. The need for this brinkmanship is to ensure it continues its rule in Penang. This will ensure that it remains the only BN party apart from the all-powerful Umno to rule a state. The party might also see a change in leadership with present deputy Kerk Choo Ting replacing Dr Lim Keng Yaik.

Different approaches

PAS: This Islamic party will officially name its deputy president Abdul Hadi Awang as its supremo, replacing the late Fadzil Noor. Until now the acting president Abdul Hadi had not made any radical policies that have changed the identity of the party. Abdul Hadi is known as a firebrand and radical Islamic leader, and will definitely push his agenda of having an Islamic state in the run-up to the general election.

To do this, one can expect PAS leaders to be more vocal in highlighting the virtues of an Islamic state, and at the same time turn on their charm tactics on the non-Muslims to accept their policy. In this process, the party might introduce a moderate-level Islamic state vision to rival Mahathir's Islamic state concept so that it will be acceptable to all.

PAS also believes it can do very well in Perlis, Kedah and Pahang in the general election. In fact party leaders are confident of taking away Kedah from Umno. While it is possible that PAS may win more seats in the general election, it's premature to speculate if it can take control of Kedah.

There is no doubt that it will not lose control of Kelantan and Terengganu. To win over any other extra states, PAS would need to have Umno performing very badly.

Keadilan/PRM: Will have a rebirth as Parti Rakyat Keadilan. However its impact on local politics is still a little suspect, especially with most of Keadilan's progressive leaders in detention or in jail. The dispute in Keadilan between its many factions is not helping and the death, or near-death of the reformasi movement has dented the fighting spirit of Keadilan. Maybe the merger will kickstart the party again but it is difficult to see it attaining the heights of 1999.

The merger can provide the leadership quality which Keadilan lacks now. It will also have to appease the non-Malay members of the party or face the risk of seeing members jumping ship.

The bit-part players?

MIC: Will continue to be run like a family business by president S Samy Vellu, who had expressed his intentions to stay for another term in the party election next March. He is not expected to face any opposition. Neither is there any clear opposition within the party to topple Samy Vellu. MIC has not had much trouble this year but that's because of the iron grip Samy Vellu has over the party. Again in the new year, nothing much is expected from MIC but for its usual rhetoric that only it can determine the future of the Indian community in this country.

Depending on the progress of the language switch that begins next year, MIC may come under pressure from Tamil language education groups over the party's failure in obtaining assurances from the government to protect and preserve Tamil schools and the future of estate children.

DAP: Will be the same as this year complaining about everything, without being able to really make any changes. The internal troubles in MCA can play to DAP's advantage in Chinese-dominated areas in the general election. It may also try to make some inroads in Penang, taking the opportunity presented by the bickering between MCA and Gerakan.

It's unlikely it will play a role in the opposition front due to its opposition of PAS' Islamic state vision. In fact, DAP will continue its aggressive campaign against Islamic state as a vote-winning exercise. However, one can expect DAP to enter strategic election pacts with Keadilan to ensure better chances of winning seats in the general election.

K KABILAN is the chief news editor of malaysiakini.