Seen from the perspective of the electoral history of Malaysia, the by-elections for the Pendang parliamentary and Anak Bukit state constituencies in Kedah is nothing unprecedented. After all, both Umno and PAS have been battling each other in democratic contests since 1951 when PAS was formed and registered as a political party.

However, if the by-elections are to be assessed or evaluated in the light of the new situation in Malaysia, the political significance grows. Both Umno and PAS are in a period of leadership transition.

The results of the by-elections would most likely be interpreted as endorsement or otherwise, of either Umno's Abdullah Ahmad Badawi or PAS' Abdul Hadi Awang, by the supporters of the respective parties as well as the wider Malay/Muslim community.

For PAS which fights to retain the seats, an Umno defeat in both the constituencies would mean that its strength in parliament remains unchanged, and it still denies the two-third majority of the Umno-dominated Kedah state assembly.

For Umno, the defeat of PAS in Pendang and Anak Bukit would certainly be interpreted as the ruling party's ability to regain the Malay/Muslim support lost in the 1999 general election held in the aftermath of the sacking and arrest of ex-deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim.

Moreover, Kedah is the political base of Umno president, Dr Mahathir Mohamad. A defeat in both constituencies would certainly deal a psychological blow to the man who is loved and loathed by the two sides of the political divide.

The issues

However, the national issues raised in the by-elections as well as the re-alignment of forces epitomised deserve critical analysis.

While PAS defends the Terengganu Syariah Criminal Offences (Hudud and Qisas) law it recently passed, Umno clearly opposes it.

For the non-Muslim minority in the two constituencies, it seems that none of them positively supports PAS on the issue, although some may opine that as long as it does not cover non-Muslims, it is an exclusive matter for Muslims to decide. After all, as non-Muslims, they cannot change the religious opinion of Muslims.

The interesting question is that how many Muslims who form the majority in the two constituencies agree or support PAS on the enactment of the hudud law, and the rationales that provide the jurisprudential premise of the law.

Yet the hudud in Terengganu has not been the only issue debated by PAS and Umno.

One is the call by the Umno-predominated government to upgrade the proficiency of the English language by making it the medium of instruction for science and mathematics in all primary schools.

Judged by the public statements of top PAS leaders, the party is not against any effort to upgrade the proficiency of English. What it opposes is the ways and means to implement the policy in a non-Anglo-Saxon polity, and in the absence of adequate infrastructure like teachers and textbooks, especially in rural and semi-rural areas.

On this issue, Umno does not seem to enjoy any advantage. PAS' position seems to have even won the empathy of many Mandarin-educated Chinese who also worry that Chinese-language education and their cultural identity would be affected adversely.

In semi-rural areas like Pendang and Anak Bukit, most of the ethnic Chinese are educated in Mandarin, not English.

It is for these reasons that some Chinese Malaysians in PAS, Keadilan, PRM and even DAP still think it is important and reasonable to assist PAS.

Although none of them seems to support the hudud law in Terengganu, they opine that since PAS would not come to power alone at the federal level, the Islamic party can serve as one of the checks and balances on Umno whose policies threaten the development of Chinese language and education.

Of course, these Chinese Malaysian friends and allies of PAS are not as organisationally strong as the established Chinese-based parties like MCA, DAP and Gerakan.

However, the reality is that Chinese Malaysian voters only form a minority in the two constituencies, and some may not be able to vote because they work in other states or even out of the country.

Non-English-educated and non-Westernised Malays/Muslims are certainly more prone to support the relatively 'moderate' position of PAS on the issue. It is also a great matter of ethnic and cultural identity.

PAS' paradise

On the ability to promise development, PAS has certainly lost out to Umno right from nomination day. PAS has also lost to Umno in terms of the control of governmental machineries and public resources.

It is perhaps for this reason that 'paradise' is projected by PAS to countervail the temptation of earthly goodies promised by Umno. 'Paradise' — in all religious traditions — is a form of psychological defence of the poor against the temptation of the rich.

Umno's advantage in controlling governmental machineries and public resources, right or wrong, also seems to have 'neutralised' the effect of PAS' fielding of two highly qualified professionals, one being a medical doctor and the other, an engineer who also holds a Master's degree in business administration.

Despite the undeniable disadvantage in having no prestigious education or marketable knowledge, Umno candidates could be, and were projected as "experienced" and "people-friendly".

However, as some observers of Malaysian politics have pointed out, win or lose the by-elections, PAS has scored a great point against Mahathir and Umno by fielding the two professionals. It has neutralised the image of the party being too 'holy' and 'backward'.

In any case, there is also the possibility that both Umno and PAS will win and lose, in the sense that while PAS retains Pendang, Umno wins back Anak Bukit.

There is always a tendency in close contests that voters of all ethnic backgrounds would compromise by voting in a candidate of the ruling coalition to the state assemblies to 'bring more development', and simultaneously supporting the opposition 'to make more noise in parliament'.

The people or voters could be as opportunistic or pragmatic as politicians, if not more.

Whatever the result and outcome of the by-elections, it is certain that both the Malay nationalist and Islamist parties, win or lose, would not disappear from the political landscape in Malaysia, until and unless a powerful and more inclusive force emerges in the middle ground among Muslims.

JAMES WONG WING ON is chief analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM) which produces the subscriber-based political report, Analysis Malaysia. Wong is a former member of parliament (1990-1995) and a former columnist for the Sin Chew Jit Poh Chinese daily. He read political science and economics at the Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. While in Sin Chew, he and a team of journalists won the top awards of Malaysian Press Institute (MPI) for 1998 and 1999.