Although he still has 16 months to go before he hands over the reigns of power, why did Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad not only announce his successor but also the man he wants to take over Abdullah's place as deputy prime minister?

The general expectation of most analysts is that when the final curtain is drawn and he makes his exit from the political scene, Mahathir would already have made some significant changes to the cabinet line-up for Abdullah Ahmad Badawi when the latter eventually becomes prime minister.

Why choose Abdullah, despite of his perceived comparatively weak support from within Umno and may therefore be easily de-stabilised from within too, unless there is some form of immediate appeasement within the next group of leaders in line to move up the three vice presidents, Najib Tun Razak, Muyhiddin Yassin and Muhammad Muhd Taib?

Clearly, Mahathir must have been well aware of all this, so he decided to make it clear, when he announced his retirement plan last month, who would definitely take over from him as Umno president and assume the coveted post of prime minister.

Naturally, the next question was who is going to take over Abdullah's place as deputy president and deputy prime minister.

Again, when he was away in the Mediterranean for a period of peace and quiet after tearfully announcing his decision to step down, he must have worried about what could happen between now and October next year, if there still remains the unresolved issue on the No 2 post.

Ambitious man

For one thing, two or three of the vice presidents would be campaigning hard, and this could prove to be unsettling and perhaps add to Mahathir's burden as he prepares to make a gradual exit.

It's a little secret that Najib, being the youngest of the three vice-presidents, is a very ambitious man.

Although he only managed to scrap through in his Pekan seat in Pahang during the last parliamentary elections, he wields considerable support within Umno.

As a former menteri besar of Johor, Muyhiddin is not without much support as well but as it looks for the moment, he does not have a bright chance.

Muhd Taib, the former menteri besar of Selangor, could hold the balance if the two make a go for the number two post in an open contest.

Mahathir must have seen that if that was to happen it could further divide the party and weaken Abdullah's position or even de-establish him in a post-Mahathir period.

Also, as it is known to many who are close to both Abdullah and Najib, there are questions about the duo's relationship.

RAHMAN theory

The so-called Rahman theory* may mean nothing to Najib, who is still young and highly ambitious.

However, those who follow the theory believe that Najib's turn to be prime minister will eventually come.

And by saying that he is the best man to become Abdullah's deputy, Mahathir is in fact telling the latter to work with Najib.

Not only is Najib the eldest son of the late Abdul Razak, the country's second prime minister, he also possesses charisma, stature and an evolving global image.

In his late 20s, Najib became the menteri besar of Pahang the youngest ever.

In Malay politics, leaders at odds with each other often display an amiable front, fights are usually conducted by proxies while leaders publicly deny the existence of any tension.

But Mahathir has changed much of Malay politics but his characteristic bluntness must have offended many Malays both in and outside the party.

However, many say the bluntness has served to be an awakening process and for their own good.

According to some who seem to know what he is thinking and planning, all that public utterances seem to be part of his plan to shake up the Malays before he leaves the political scene as they face up to the challenges of globalisation with greater open competition among the races.

During his speech at the Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu Sarawak (PBB) convention in Kuching on Monday, the premier's mind was clearly occupied with the issue of finally leaving the government.

Be grateful

For example, he prefaced his hour-long speech, carried live on radio and TV, by saying present-day leaders must be grateful not only to their supporters but also to their predecessors.

He then went on to describe and praise the roles of national leaders of the past, specifically Onn Jafaar, Tunku Abdul Rahman, Abdul Razak and Hussein Onn.

Many in the audience could have thought that his remarks were targetted at Sarawak Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud who had a fall out with his uncle and former chief minister, Abdul Rahman Yakub in 1987.

Nevertheless, Mahathir may have been making a general statement to reinforce his point that past leaders must be remembered for their roles for helping to bring success to Malaysia.

Abdul Rahman, who lives in Kuala Lumpur, still maintains contact with Mahathir. The latter must be aware that not only was Rahman not accorded his rightful place as a surviving former head of state and chief minister in Sarawak but that Taib's supporters have obliterated all references to his role in the formation and development of PBB.

In his speech, Mahathir also referred to his cabinet meetings, saying all major issues were brought up and debated, and that post-cabinet meetings were held for the ministers to inform their deputies, parliamentary-secretaries, secretaries-general and other senior officials regarding important cabinet decisions before implementation.

This was seen as underlying his philosophy for greater transparency in decision-making and implementation.

It was also aimed against the notion that one man was making decisions with others had little say except to follow and implement them.

He said buildings like the Petronas Twin Towers in Kuala Lumpur were erected to show Malaysia's progress and achievements

The premier added that he was against the idea of statues of him being carved.

Mahathir is clearly anxious to leave good legacies behind when, again, he told the more than 2000 delegates and guests at the convention that a leader should know when to step down and not wait until he becomes unpopular, and also that titles and money are not everything.

His decision not to take up any government post or an overseas job after his retirement indicates that Mahathir will want to ensure that when Abdullah takes over, there will already be a cabinet that can work as a team and be committed to his philosophies of transparency and good governance.

* RAHMAN theory derives from the name of the first prime minister Tunku Abdul Rahman. According to this theory, the word RAHMAN contains the names of the country's prime ministers.

R for Tunku Abdul Rahman, A for Abdul Razak, H for Hussein Onn, M for Mahathir Mohamad and the speculation is that the next letter A will be for Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and N for Najib Razak.

Tony Thien is malaysiakini's correspondent in Sarawak.