With various parties discussing eagerly the possibility of an early general elections, the main focus of interest now is on Umnos fresh attempt to recapture the opposition-held states of Kelantan and Terengganu.

The big question is whether Umno is mentally and physically prepared to deny PAS another victory in both states. Umno looks helpless in Kelantan because the oppositions victories in the last two general elections were due to an external factor  droves of Kelantanese coming back to vote for the opposition.

As such there is practically no foolproof device for Umno to actually measure its support in Kelantan. This partly explains why Umnos forecast that the party would recapture Kelantan in the 1995 and 1999 general elections had proved wrong.

However, there is talk that as an attempt to rid the electorate list of phantom voters, the Elections Commission may enforce a provision making it compulsory for voters to vote according to the address stated in their identity cards.

This may bring cheers to Kelantan Umno, but it may affect votes for Barisan Nasional in Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, and probably in Johor too.

The majority of Kelantanese are working in those states. For example, Women Affairs Minister, Shahrizat Abdul Jalil won the Lembah Pantai parliamentary constituency in 1999 by a slim majority. Keadilan Youth Chief Mohd Ezam Mohd Noor lost the Shah Alam parliamentary constituency by less than 1,000 votes.

If Kelantanese were to vote according to the address in their identity cards, Umno may capture more seats in Kelantan, but it would be at the expense of losing other seats it won in urban areas in 1999 with a small majority.

Concerted action

But there are encouraging prospects of Umno winning more seats in Terengganu. After two years in power, the PAS government is struggling financially to manage the state since the federal government stopped paying the annual petroleum royalty payments.

It's definitely going to be an uphill struggle for PAS to rule the state if the party gets reelected.

The Terengganu Umno convention last Friday finalised the partys master plan to recapture the state from the PAS-led government in the next general elections.

The participants met for hours at the two-day convention in Kemaman, earnestly discussing strategies to realise the aim.

And it was agreed that the first step towards achieving the aim was to foster party unity to ensure the strong grassroots support at branch and divisional levels. The theme of the convention - Umno as the Saviour of the People - is in line with state Umno programmes which include distribution of wang ehsan (goodwill grants) to deserving individuals and families irrespective of their political inclination.

Opening the convention, Umno deputy president Abdullah Ahmad Badawi reminded participants the partys win-back-Terengganu aim could only be materialise if there is organised and concerted action.

Badawi, who is also the Terengganu Umno Liaison Chief, reminded them that the partys programmes - albeit economic, welfare, social or educational - should benefit the people and effectively help them to have a good life.

Factionalism woe

Among the recommendations endorsed by the convention was the urgent need to further strengthen the effectiveness of the party information machineries in disseminating information about weaknesses of the PAS-led government.

The convention further recommended that the performance of the partys development officers be subjected to close scrutiny to ensure they discharge their duties effectively and responsibly to reflect the BN governments sincerity to help people improve their standard of living. It was also recommended that the officers be rotated regularly to avoid possible abuse of their position for political gain.

It seems that the focus of discontent among Umno members is the existing factionalism within the party which has greatly affected the partys performance in the last general elections.

There were also suggestions that Terengganu Umno deputy chief, Jusoh Idris who is also chairperson of the Terengganu Regional Authority (Ketengah) be given a higher government post, possibly a deputy ministership.

The conventions participants were of the opinion that Jusohs present post has not provided him with the necessary political leverage to play an effective role at the federal level to strengthen the state Umno.

A big deal

But there are still many issues that Terengganu Umno has to deal with. These include the abolishment of toll collection at the Sultan Zainal Abidin bridge, a move implemented by the present PAS administration.

Though these two decisions have left nothing in the state government's coffers, they have greatly appreciated by the Terengganu public.

Terengganu Umno must decide whether it would restore or maintain these PAS-government decisions, if BN comes back to power in the state.

This may not seem like a big deal to outsiders, but it is things like these which matter most to the Terengganu people who elected PAS to power in 1999.

NASH RAHMAN is senior analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM) which produces the subscriber-based political report, Analysis Malaysia.