There could be some truth in speculations that the general elections, due for 2004, could be brought forward to sometime next year. There has always been a link between the date of the countrys general elections and that of Umnos party elections.

Generally, most of the Umno's general elections candidates hold important party posts, at least at the divisional level. They are either division heads, or heads of divisional youth and women sections.

A party elections that coincides with the general elections would always be a closely contested one, involving party leaders who aspire to become the election candidates. Past experience has showed that in such situation, money politics will rear its ugly head again.

To avoid this, Umno can opt to postpone its party elections, scheduled for June next year, and hold the general elections first. This will also include the postponement of party branch and division level elections (from February to April) to a later date.

The general elections can then be held between June and November before the onset of the monsoon season along the peninsulars east coast which may last until the first quarter of 2004.

The government has in the past never completed the full five-year term allowed before a fresh general elections has to be called. Based on the above reasons, there is a possibility that the general elections would be called for before the end of next year.

Terrorist link

The early polls theory is further supported by the fact that the Barisan Nasional government is now in a strong position to handle the opposition's challenges. The government has successfully countered PAS by highlighting cases of Islamic militancy in Malaysia following the Sept 11 incident.

PAS temporarily lost ground after the government launched a nationwide hunt for members of the militant Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM), some of whom are claimed to be PAS members. Those arrested included the son of the PAS' spiritual leader and the Kelantan Menteri Besar Nik Aziz Nik Mat.

The government says it has evidence to prove that the KMM group was organising an armed uprising. The group was also linked to the al-Qaeda terrorist network group led by Osama bin Laden whom America holds responsible for the Sept 11 terror attacks.

PAS has also been hit by DAPs withdrawal from Barisan Alternatif opposition front. The latter found it impossible to tolerate the formers struggle to establish an Islamic state in Malaysia. DAPs decision also strengthened the public opinion of PAS as an extremist Islamic party.

To compound this, the High Court recently found leaders of the Al-Maunah militant group guilty of waging war against the Yang Di Pertuan Agong and sentenced them to death.

As many Al-Maunah members are also PAS members, the incident has directly affected the party's image in the eyes of the non-Muslims, both locally and internationally. PAS, however, maintains that the Al- Maunah incident was merely a governtment sandiwara (stage play).

Islamic state chaos

The Indera Kayangan by-election in Perlis last month clearly demonstrated the fact that the opposition pact is in disarray. The Keadilan candidate failed to get the proper support from PAS which was not keen to campaign actively.

The Islamic party feared alienating Chinese voters, a sizable percentage of the electorate, over the Islamic state issue and instead confined its campaigning in Indera Kayangan to Malay-majority areas.

But PAS may have wrong in adopting this stance. The Islamic state issue had never been discussed widely among Chinese voters in Indera Kayangan due to the fact that the MCA itself was avoiding the issue.

MCA came under fire from the Chinese community for publicly supporting Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamads announcement that Malaysia was already an Islamic state. The Chinese party later had to clarify its stand on the issue by saying that what Dr Mahathir's actually meant was that Malaysia was a secular Islamic state.

PAS rapped Mahathir for making the announcement without referring it first to Parliament for discussion. The party insisted that such a decision needed an amendment to the Federal Constitution.

But to everybody's surprise, the PAS blueprint for its Islamic state suggests that Malaysia can become an Islamic state without having to amend the Federal Constitution. The PAS version also allows non-Muslims to be in the government, not unlike the policy practice by the Umno-led government now.

PAS was also previously against women contesting for general elections. But about a week ago, PAS decided to allow them to be selected as party candidates for future elections.

Seasonal support

The party's ever-changing views on issues and policies is confusing to the public in general and the Malay community in particular.

Malays at large who support PAS are beginning to be sceptical about the party agenda. With the issue of KMM and its link to al-Qaeda network now being highlighted regularly in the mainstream media, many of them have begun to dissociate themselves from PAS.

PAS also realises that there has been no significant increase in its membership. What the party is getting is only seasonal public support - which could evaporate at anytime.

If all this were not worrying enough, DAP is trying its best to convince Keadilan to jilt PAS and join it (the DAP) at the altar of political marriage.

Obviously, the political scenario now is in BN's favour. Although MCA is experiencing a leadership crisis, the Indera Kayangan result has shown that when the need arises, it can consolidate itself for the sake of BN and Dr Mahathir.

And with the recent return of Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) into the BN fold, Dr Mahathir can now count on Sabah and Sarawak to help deliver the two-thirds majority needed for BN to continue its uninterrupted rule of the country.

NASH RAHMAN is senior analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM) which produces the subscriber-based political report, Analysis Malaysia.