And the winner is

So we finally have it the first non-Mahathir elections in two decades, something that will be alien to almost half the population of this fair country.

It's an interesting election. If you believe the foreign pundits, then Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi will win with a bigger majority.

This explains why billions of ringgit have been flowing into the country seeking to make tonnes of money from what they hope will be a surging stock market - post elections.

If you believe local pundits then the same will happen principally because of the "feel good" factor as people are still partying during Pak Lah's honeymoon since being anointed PM by Mahathir.

However, if you believe Abdullah Ahmad, sacked Editor-in-Chief of Umno's New Straits Times, reading between the lines he seems to indicate that PAS will do as well in this elections as they did in the last, perhaps even better by winning Kedah.

Strange that he should say that, then again it's very "Dollahish" to say the least. Courting controversy is in his nature. It's also an interesting election for several reasons; let me count the ways.

First the mudslinging - wait a minute, what's so interesting about that? Well this time BN is just standing on the sidelines while PAS, Keadilan and the DAP sling mud at each other. No wonder they say Pak Lah is smiling all the time.

PAS spiritual leader Nik Aziz Nik Mat leads the way by opposing the candidacy of Keadilan deputy president Dr Syed Husin Ali in the Kota Bharu parliamentary constituency because he was "unIslamic" and a "socialist".

Obviously Nik Aziz believes that even if a person has lived for 60 years as a pious and honest Muslim, he is unIslamic if he is a socialist. Nik Aziz clearly does not know his socialism because socialism stands for the benefit of the poor and working class citizens. Surely that must be a good thing, no? Or does he believe in capitalism?

Perhaps Syed Husin did the noble thing by withdrawing from the seat, but not contesting altogether? Surely that is neither in the interest of the opposition nor the citizen, Dr Syed?

Now he is reduced to a bit player in what could have been a final winning swansong and all because he could not stand up to one politically misguided nobleman in his private fiefdom. Does not say much for "solidarity" in the opposition or is that a communist aphorism?

Then we have the "bad medicine" between Abdul Hadi Awang the PAS president and DAP chairperson Lim Kit Siang. It all started with Hadi saying that Kit Siang and DAP deputy chairperson Karpal Singh were "medicine, whose shelf life has expired".

Kit Siang then likened Hadi and Nik Aziz to the intolerant and ultra conservatives of Iran (whose shelf life by the way may be expiring very soon too).

Hadi said that the two former dynamic duo were only suited for the 1960's and 1970s while Kit Siang sent Hadi back to the 20th century middle east. If this does not seem like little children squabbling, then it must just be me.

By the way guys, the more mud you sling at each other, the less there is for the BN. Duh!

Of course, Kit Siang and Karpal are also being hounded by Keadilan, their former partners in the Barisan Alternatif. Keadilan sent their own party members to stand in the same seats against the DAP strongmen (former strongmen?) which led to a stinging backlash from the dynamic duo.

Last minute withdrawals by Keadilan meant there is a direct fight with BN in both constituencies. Was this really necessary, one wonders. Does anyone know what they are doing? Do THEY know what they are doing?

Now if external problems were the only issue you could forgive Kit Siang and Karpal, but they are even being hit within their own party.

Karpal who is now based in the Klang Valley wanted to stand in Petaling Jaya - its easier to drive his Mercedes to PJ than to Penang. However strong undercurrents within the DAP and KOKS II (Kick Out Karpal Singh, from PJ that is) worked. The sentiment was so strong against Karpal that he eventually had to settle for Bukit Gelugor. Who says sequels are pass?

Obviously there is a sea change in the DAP and these old guard seem to have little control over the young DAP leaders. If they do not win in their respective seats then its curtains for them both. It may be COOP (Chucked Out Of Penang) for Karpal and KOKS III for Kit Siang (Knocked Out, Kit Siang).

Speaking of being knocked out, it appears that Keadilan trio, Mohd Azmin Ali, Mohd Ezam Mohd Nor and Irene Fernandez have indeed been knocked out of the elections by the Election Commission and the High Court which refused to hear their application.

Is it a case of three blind mice, because it is clear in the constitution that anyone convicted of an offence like theirs cannot stand for election, isn't it? Am I the confused one here? Don't waste your time people, forget about standing for elections and spend your time supporting your members who are.

Speaking of blind mice, how in heaven's name can Shamsiah Rashidah Ibrahim, the BN candidate for the Senggarang state seat, file papers without verifying that her seconder was not a registered voter in that constituency. It is quite unbelievable; she should be sacked from Umno, or do we still suffer the fools?

Speaking of more blind mice, looks like unlike their rhetoric, PAS has given up on Kedah and Perlis and are focusing on maintaining their majorities in Terengganu. After the big talk all their big guns have abandoned Kedah for the safety and security of Terengganu and Kelantan, which by the way is the only safe bet for PAS.

Now finally let me conclude by giving my predictions for the elections. Since I am in the UK, I cannot enter the arena nor do I have the benefit of the gossip mongering among the party faithfuls. I can therefore give an objective, independent prediction.

Firstly I predict a resounding win for Pak Lah in Kepala Batas with more than 80% of the votes and the BN will win overall with a larger majority of 68% of the popular vote (1990: 51%, 1995: 64%, 1999: 56%). I also predict that BN will win 80% of the parliamentary seats and also make it a comfortable win in Kedah in all seats.

The fight will now be in Terengganu and I believe that is now a 50:50 state. I will stick my neck out and say that it will be a very close fight with a win for the BN. Sorry Pak Lah, but Kelantan will remain the private domain of the Tok Guru.

So there you have it, these are my predictions. May the best party win.