Jailed former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim today said that it was naive and unrealistic to expect any meaningful changes in the upcoming Umno elections in May.

While he claimed that he still enjoyed "a considerable support" from the Umno grassroots, Anwar said that changes cannot be expected in the party as the electoral process in the party is marred.

"Even though there is a ground swell of dissent, it would be naive and unrealistic to expect meaningful changes, simply because the entire electoral process as it is practised now is flawed," he told malaysiakini today via a handwritten two-page missive.

Last January, Umno Supreme Council, the ruling party's key decision-making body, issued a no-contest advice for the president and deputy president posts in the coming elections. The council also nominated Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and his deputy, Abdullah Badawi, for the party's top two posts.

Speculation had been rife before the council meeting that Umno would opt for a no-contest ruling for its top two posts to avoid a debilitating power struggle within the party.

"The democratic principle is entrenched in the party constitution. Unfortunately, the current leadership do not have the confidence of getting the support of the majority," said Anwar.

Anwar also revealed an open secret: that the no-contest ruling was initially meant to prevent him from challenging Mahathir.

"The instituting of this no contest 'rule' was initially aimed at me; that is, to prevent me from mounting a challenge against the president," he said.

In the last Umno elections in 1996, there were no contest for the two top posts following a special resolution adopted at the Umno general assembly the previous year. The decision had since unleashed a fear that there could be abuse of power and concentration of authority in the hands of a few Umno leaders.

Anwar said the General Assembly "has become a forum to shower praises on the leaders within the party."

"It is Dr Mahathir in his capacity as a supremo emasculating the entire Supreme Council, purporting to speak on behalf of Umno. The several critical voices of dissent have been sidelined into near oblivion," Anwar said in his interview relayed via the message.

Anwar added that apart from money politics, the assembly would also witness politics of fear and intimidation.

Asked how Umno could overcome its internal differences and be united, Anwar said: "Dr Mahathir has to resign. Umno has to reform itself."