Harnessing hope in Burma's by-elections

At a political rally in the Mingartaungnyut township right outside of Rangoon, thousands thronged the streets to support the National League for Democracy (NLD), the country's main opposition party that will contest in today's by-elections for the first time since 1990.

Caravan after caravan of trucks filled with supporters decked in red and white and waving NLD flags filled the roads, as supporters danced spontaneously with joy and abandon.

Families flocked to the sidelines and watched in support, bringing their children to witness this historic moment. The lady beside me, a woman in her 50s, started to cry in what she called tears of happiness.

The festive mood was palpable as at long last the burden of history is being lifted, and the promise of a better future is becoming tangible.

While these elections on one level will not change the balance of power - only 9% of the total seats are being contested - they will mark an opportunity where the Burmese people will have their popular choice, democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, take a seat in Parliament.

After decades of being muzzled, where demonstrators were brutally mowed down by troops in 1988 and 2007, the country is on the cusp of giving its people a real voice.

Of the 45 seats, the NLD is expected to win at least half, potentially more, if the wave of support and optimism continues. Although uneven in places, the NLD has run a well-organised campaign, with many young people as volunteers and modern merchandising.

The campaign has clearly centred on Suu Kyi, whose name alone provokes an outpouring of love and devotion.

Problems with electoral rolls

There are legitimate concerns with the electoral process. The campaign has featured intimidation, unfair use of resources and problematic electoral rolls - features that Malaysians understand well.

These problems are unlikely however to stop the wave of deep-seated opposition to the government, as voters in Burma know that these elections are a crucial signal of the need to further reform the political landscape.

While problems have and will mar the process, the campaign itself has been revolutionary and genuinely liberating.

The incumbent government has shown signs that it is willing to fairly face the electorate. They have even let in international observers.
The number of foreign polls watchers on the ground is small and limited, but the regime's willingness to allow these observers into the country shows growing confidence rather than weakness.

President Thein Sein has openly and repeatedly said he was committed to free polls, and actively intervened to stop any shenanigan. The trust he has earned has contributed to the growing sense of progress and promise these elections can bring.

Parallels with Malaysia striking

There are striking features in this election that echo patterns of democratisation elsewhere.

Leader of the opposition, Suu Kyi, has served as a unifying figure, bringing together different groups with one common aim - to bring about genuine political reform.

Most of the candidates in her party won their credentials as political prisoners. They include a young hip-hop singer, Zayaw Thar, established lawyers, doctors and merchants.

The NLD is fielding a record number of women, forcing the incumbent regime to do the same.

Burma currently has the lowest number of women in parliament in the region, 4%, and this will likely change after these polls, with the entry of a number of women, including Suu Kyi herself.

Many of the NLD candidates are parachuted to these areas, but they are united in the call for change. They will face off against local leaders, handpicked by the regime and rich in resources.

The incumbent party, United Solidarity Democratic Party (USDP), relies significantly on patronage and its local standing.

They have tied their victory to the development programmes over the last decade, taking credit for the construction of schools, clinics and roads. Most of their candidates are civilians, with only a handful of former military personnel. There are also a few relatives of current ministers, as the regime is attempting to consolidate its elite families.

Money will have salience in the more rural areas with limited media exposure and in a number of seats, the USDP will have the advantage due to a large number of military personnel.

While the cash handouts are not quite as in your face as is happening in Malaysia, the parallels are striking.

Long history of fear

Of the 45 open seats, over three-quarters are competitive. The battleground areas are in Burma's heartland - the Irrawaddy Delta and Mandalay, Sagaing and Magway divisions.

The NLD has the advantage in the former capital Rangoon, while the USDP has a strong position in the seats around the new capital Naypyidaw and in a handful of seats where there is a large military presence, such as Myaing.

Including the three suspended seats in the Kachin state (where they were affected by separatist insurgency), only six of the seats are in the minority areas. This is due to the fact that these by-elections are being held to replace those elected who had to resign in order to join the government last March, and a few minorities were brought into the cabinet.

While these elections are essentially a two-party contest, there are 17 parties contesting and a number of independent candidates, making for considerable choices, turning these elections the most competitive since 1990 and opening the way for greater liberalisation.

What distinguishes Burma is its long history of fear. These by-elections are very much about shedding the apprehension for change. Unlike Malaysia, there has been much more pressure to conform, and the high costs in not doing so in Burma.

For ordinary Burmese, this election is about embracing and harnessing hope. Let us genuinely hope that the April Fool's Day by-elections do not make fools of ordinary Burmese for believing in what until recently was impossible, and ultimately, in themselves.

DR BRIDGET WELSH is associate professor of political science at Singapore Management University and she can be reached at bwelsh@smu.edu.sg. She is in Burma to observe the by-elections.