Q&A: Polls crucial for Pak Lah, Umno

In this second of a two-part interview, axed New Straits Times editor-in-chief and maverick politician told malaysiakini that new Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi would want to stay for at least two terms in office.

Malaysiakini: How will Umno fare in the coming elections?

Abdullah: Kelantan is sure to be retained by PAS, and Terengganu will be retained by PAS too. The question is Kedah. If PAS captured Kedah, the centre will be nearer, if it fails to do that, it may be temporarily held back.

But right now, if you are to ask me, Umno has the edge in Kedah. It still 50-50, (ex-premier) Dr Mahathir (Mohamad) had admitted to that, and I say I am uncomfortable because there is no top Umno leadership in Kedah now. Before you have (first prime minister) Tunku Abdul Rahman, Dr Mahathir, then (former finance minister) Daim (Zainuddin). Now who?

I am not saying that the leadership now is bad, but none is a potential national leader - and Kedah has produced two prime minister. Kedah's advantage right now is the delineation, the gerrymandering has benefitted (Umno).

But the movement of 2,000 Chinese to Yan (now renamed Jerai parliamentary seat), 2,000 Chinese to Sik, is a short-term measure. You can only do it once every 10 years.

I saw Aminuddin Hamzah (PAS' Anak Bukit state assemblyman) - he is the son of the Umno's divisional secretary. He went to England and all that, and later joined PAS because he cannot forgive the excesses of the Umno leadership.

After producing two prime ministers, and one powerful finance minister, Kedah is not half of what Selangor is... yet the biggest Malay state is Kedah. Kelantan and Terengganu have the highest percentage of Malays. But in term of numbers, Kedah has more Malays than any other states, except Wilayah Persekutuan (Kuala Lumpur). The biggest Malay concentration now is in Wilayah.

Not true. Kelantan has never been Umno stronghold. It was, before independence in 1955. Then we lost the state in 1959 to PAS - except one parliamentary seat and two state seats. Of the 46 years since independence, Umno has only rule Kelantan for 10 years. That was when I was in detention.

That also through an artificial emergency. Remember, (ex-Umno Pasir Mas division chief) Ibrahim Ali threw some pebbles and there was no house burnt, there was no school burnt, and nobody died, what emergency? That is to enable Umno to win. And they won.

They squandered it after 10 years - 1978 to 1999. (Ex-Kelantan mentri besar) Mohamad Yaakob should have been an imam, not a politician. He was a failure... I told that to (former finance minister) Tengku Razaleigh (Hamzah). He (Mohamad) is a good man... but Tengku Razaleigh should have been the menteri besar.

We might - even with Tengku Razaleigh or people like him - have lengthen the period of Umno rule there.

I anticipate and I wish Pak Lah (Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi) will win big. But having said that, I don't think Pak Lah will be able to recover the two states (Terengganu and Kelantan).

The real battle, the real crown jewel, is the Malay votes, which will determine whether Umno has recovered the Malay support and PAS goes in retreat in Kedah. Both sides are very confident, and I am a bit uncomfortable as Mahathir had said yesterday. We will see. Then again, PAS believes - as I understand - that even if they don't make it, they will win the popular votes.

You don't want to see an election like (US President George W) Bush - you win the seats but you lose the popular votes. Don't underestimate PAS. PAS will remain, shall remain alternative to Umno whether we like it or not. It's not Keadilan. Not Parti Rakyat (Malaysia). If the Malays desert Umno, which I hope they don't, they will go to PAS.

Partly because of the Islamic resurgence the world over. Sometimes what happen here is not determined here but being determined outside. And PAS is purportedly perceived to be an Islamic party - not necessarily - but a lot of people perceived it is because of the name Islam. That was the greatest mistake... but the British did it purposely.

PAS is perceived by Muslims here, in growing numbers, as a party that represents an ancient religion and advancing - I mean, no doubt that Islam all over the world is on the rise - at least in term of the opposition.

I think Pak Lah should win big, except in these two states. Kedah 50-50. I think PAS may win a few more seats or more votes. For Pak Lah, the 'feel good' factor is on his side, and he is perceived to be a good Muslim, and personally I know he is a good Muslim. If there was any Umno leader who is really religious, a devout Muslim, it is Pak Lah.

For Pak Lah, there is a lot of going for him - the delivery of his promises, rhetoric, fighting against corruption, equality for everybody and all that. He started very well, but will he have the political will to do it. I know Pak Lah. I hope he has the political will, and his future will be very bright. He cannot be selective. There should not be any selective prosecution... I wish him well, and I think he should win big except in these two states.

Umno may lose Kedah or may win big - it depends on its candidates. I am going to put somebody in Merbok (parliamentary seat) who is 65 years old if PAS is going to put a young, foreign-trained graduate, professional...

Pak Lah must not fail to maintain the status quo. That's the worst-case scenario. He must, whatever happen, maintain the status quo and try to reduce PAS' popular votes.

If Kedah falls, that means for the first time Umno loses three states to the opposition coalition. Forget Sabah and Sarawak. We have lost once to Snap, and we have lost twice to PBS. We are talking here about the peninsular. That doesn't say very well for Pak Lah.

Yes, it is okay. But he should be able to perform better than the status quo. I think he should, if he plays his cards well... but the test of the pudding is in the eating. The going is good for him. (Jailed ex-deputy premier) Anwar (Ibrahim) is still there. Don't underestimate it. Malays are emotional people, they can easily whip up their emotions. On paper, Pak Lah can do better than 1999.

He mustn't do worst than 1999, then he will be okay. And Pak Lah, I understand, want to stay at least for two terms, or half of Mahathir's time. He will probably go further if he really delivers what he says he would. I have no doubt that Pak Lah wants to deliver, but it depends on whether he has the political will, and whether he gets enough support.

For the time being, yes. He will enjoy greater support if he delivers better.

Pak Lah is reversing some of Mahathir's policies. How does Mahathir feel about that?

Pak Lah was selected by Mahathir, and I think Mahathir did the right thing by appointing Pak Lah. I supported him and I called Pak Lah from New York when he was appointed.

And Mahathir has also said that PAS is on the upswing and all that, and among the Umno leaders, he (Pak Lah) has the best Islamic credentials. Even among the present lot, there is nobody near Pak Lah when it comes to Islamic credentials. Pak Lah is a really good Muslim.

So Mahathir has the foresight to select Pak Lah, and Pak Lah will do a good job. As for reversing Mahathir's policies, well, he put Pak Lah there, and now Pak Lah is in charge, he also want to make a stamp of his own.

His position will depend on Pak Lah's performance. This man is not like his father... shall I put it, he cannot be built up to be like his father. His father is a man of principles.

Najib is, a bit... I have to choose my word properly. But you can quote me that he is not like his father. I'll put like this - his father was firm to his principles, generous with people, kind, courteous, look after people who help him, look after people who do things for him, he died a poor man. He was not rich.

I worked for him for 14 years. And I'd die for him. I did all the things he wanted, I became unpopular on his account, and he said 'Dollah, you are my mouth, my eyes and my ears' - I did it willingly.

He didn't make me rich, because he is not rich himself. He was incorruptible. When he died, he got only two houses. One was built after he died by a friend of his, because this friend of his knew that he (Razak) has nothing. He has no money, and all his savings were from the Magsaysay award. There was Umno money, but that goes to Umno.

I don't, if Pak Lah performs well.

Yes, that is why this election is very crucial for Pak Lah, and for Umno.

Najib should win easily. They have commandeered 2,000 soldiers and other things. A win is a win. (Opposition leader) Tan Chee Khoon once won by a single digit. Like in hockey matches, if we win 5-0, you get 2 points; you win 1-0, you also get 2 points.

A win is a win, but having said that, after being made a deputy prime minister, after having 2,000 soldiers plus other people in his constituency, if he doesn't perform well, it doesn't look good for him. But if I were him, I won't worry so much.