PAS internal survey in Kedah showed that the party with the help of its ally Keadilan may be able to win at least 18 state seats out of the total 36 in Kedah thus taking over the state from Barisan Nasional.

Sources close to the top leadership revealed that its latest cula undi (straw poll) conducted by its election workers showed that it not only has the strength to deny BN a two-third majority but would also chalk up an extra six more seats to add to the 13 they had won at the last elections.

"The survey excluded Chinese voters for the state seats, which means that the results indicate our high chances of winning at the 18 state seats based only on the Malay votes," the source told malaysiakini .

"So if Chinese voters would swing to us by a minimal 20 percent, we would easily wrest Kedah from Umno."

PAS' Anak Bukit incumbent Amiruddin Hamzah expressed confidence that the party could win at Kota Seputeh, Alor Mengkudu, Pantai Merdeka and Kubang Rotan

There are 36 state seats in Kedah, of which BN has control over 23 seats, PAS twelve and one with Keadilan. As for parliament seats, BN has eight seats and PAS seven.

"I think we are able to keep the 13 seats we won. The prime minister's statement that BN will easily win Kedah with two-third majority is mere political hype," he said.

"The state Umno's internal squabbling is an open secret. Their seat allocation problems are a bonus to us."

SAR still hot issue

He said the main issues PAS will exploit during the elections included the much debated sekolah agama rakyat (people's religious school) or SAR, and the federal government's decision to cut its per capita grant to them.

"It's still a hot issue here as many SARs had been affected by the decision. Another hot issue is the move to have Maths and Science subjects to be taught in English and many parents here are aware that the move has not been successful despite government propaganda declaring it a success," he said.

He also said candidates are likely to monopolise on local issues - for example, in Kuala Kedah, PAS has pointed out the state government's commitment to complete a RM40 million marina bay when the proposed housing relocation plan has yet to be fulfilled.

"The relocation plan also costs about RM40million and yet after four deputy prime ministers, the state government has yet to complete the project... and they claimed that their party has a tradition of membela rakyat !"

Meanwhile, things look equally good for PAS in the neighbouring state of Perlis - if their survey is to be believed that is.

A grassroots leader said that thanks to the "Harun Din" factor, the majority of the Malay community is rooting for PAS, referring to renowned religious scholar Dr Harun Din who was made the party information chief last year.

"Dr Harun has helped the party a lot. The Malays are eager and excited to have him appointed as the next mentri besar. Whenever there is a ceramah by him, the locals would come in throngs to hear what he has to say," he said.

He, however, refused to divulge any information from the survey results for fear that their election strategies may be countered by Perlis Mentri Besar Shahidan Kasim.

Apart from stating that Harun is likely to run in both parliament and state seats, he was tight-lipped on everything else.

"Everything has to be hush-hush because Shahidan is known to go at length just to halt our influence. We don't want all our efforts to be jeopardised. If everything goes well, PAS is set to make further inroads in Perlis," he said.

There are three parliament and 15 state seats in Perlis. Ruling coalition Barisan Nasional controls all but three state seats, which are in the hands of PAS.

Easy in East Coast

In the 1999 general election, PAS' plan to nominate Harun to run against Shahidan did not materialise after the latter withdrew at the last minute.

Sources said that the decision had cost PAS dearly as BN won 12 out of 15 state seats crushing speculations that PAS would be able to wrest Perlis from BN.

Meanwhile, in the East-Coast states of Kelantan and Terengganu,, the straw poll survey conducted by PAS revealed that the party would face an easy path to retain the two states.

PAS' Kelantan election director Wan Abdul Rahim Wan Abdullah said that it is a "foregone conclusion" that PAS would be able to win the state with a strong majority.

"Our survey showed that they stand a fighting chance at two parliament seats and 11 state seats. Don't believe the BN propaganda that the BN is going to win Kelantan. No way! Even their former leader Anuar Musa admits that the most they can do is denying us the two-third majority - even that is very unlikely."

Among the seats which PAS will be having a tough fight would be in parliament seats of Gua Musang (expected to be contested by incumbent Umno supreme council member Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah) and Jeli (expected to be contested state Umno leader Mustapa Mohamad) while in the state it will be Paloh and Galas.

Wan Abdul Rahim also said that PAS Kelantan face little problems with the Chinese voters as there are only two state constituencies which are Kota Lama and Galas where non-Malay voters are the deciding factor.

"In DUN Kota Lama, it is confirmed that Dr Anuar Tan will be defending his seat. He has the support of the Chinese as he has proven himself to be a good community leader. He was able to help the Chinese deal with their problems involving property ownership and religion and we are confident he'll win again this time," he said.

"In Galas, apart from the 2,000 Chinese voters, we have the Orang Asli community there...so I don't think it will be a tough seat for PAS to win there."

There are 14 parliament and 43 state seats in Kelantan.

Seven tough seats

As for Terengganu, PAS is confident that it would garner an easy win in 25 seats out of the total 32 state seats.

A source close to the PAS Terengganu leadership said that the party is facing tough fights in only seven seats - including the four won by BN in 1999.

"It may difficult to win in Seberang Takir, Telemung, Ajil and Kemasik. But we have not given up hope yet," he said.

He refused to reveal the other three seats that PAS may stand to lose, stating that most of the voters at the affected constituencies may opt for BN due to the poor performance by their respective representatives.

Based on the straw poll survey, he added that PAS Terengganu foresees no problems in getting Chinese votes

"They have seen our track record as the state administrator and I believe that the state has been fair. The majority of them are solid behind us. The on-going attack by MCA has failed to make any impact among the Chinese community," he said.

"MCA was regarded as elites but they had never really served the community. Suddenly, they lost the claim to be the community's champion. I mean the Chinese community are not stupid,"

There are eight parliament seats in Terengganu.