The upcoming elections will be watched closely for signs that Islamic fundamentalism is gaining ground in one of the Muslim world's most economically-advanced states.

The elections, which are expected to be held this month after Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi dissolved parliament today, will pit the government against a conservative Islamic opposition which made sweeping gains in the last poll five years ago.

That success has been put down by ruling party supporters to anger over the treatment of popular former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, who was sacked in 1998 and jailed on what critics say were trumped-up charges of corruption and sodomy.

With Anwar's plight now fading as an issue, voters who ditched the ruling Umno for the hardline Islamic party PAS will return to the fold, according to this theory.

Describing them as "refugee voters", former deputy premier Musa Hitam said: "They did not switch over to the opposition out of political conviction but out of frustration over the Anwar Ibrahim issue.

"But they don't feel this anymore. At this general election I expect these refugees to be back."

Religious rule

PAS sees it differently, believing its call for religious rule along the lines of Afghanistan's ousted Taliban fundamentalists resonates with Muslims sickened by what they see as the decadence associated with economic development.

PAS tripled its parliamentary seats in the 1999 elections, took power in a second out of 13 states and aims to win control of another four states in the upcoming vote.

But Umno is counting on a change of leadership from veteran premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad - who was once notoriously lampooned as an unIslamic pig by a PAS newspaper - to turn the tide.

Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who took over when Mahathir retired last October, majored in Islamic studies at university and has a less confrontational style than his predecessor.

"With Abdullah's impeccable Islamic credentials PAS will find it harder to attack him from the religious angle, although it will still try to convince its supporters that Umno is unacceptable as far as religion is concerned," analyst Wong Chun Wai wrote in The Star.

Islam is the official religion in Malaysia, but the constitution calls for a secular government in this multiracial nation with large Buddhist, Christian and Hindu minorities among the ethnic Chinese and Indians who make up more than a third of the population of 25 million.

"The election will be a referendum on the new prime minister," an Asian diplomat told AFP. "The challenge is in the vulnerable Malay states up north and whether he can deliver the goods."

Lack of issues

Apart from his religious credentials, Abdullah has given priority to issues close to the hearts of the rural Malays - ending government corruption and promoting agriculture.

"There will be a swing of votes, quite substantially, back to Umno," said University Kebangsaan Malaysia lecturer Mohamad Agus Yusoff.

"The economy is in good shape and there is a lack of issues, so this is to the advantage of the Barisan Nasional," he said.

The Barisan Nasional is a coalition of 14 parties led by Umno, which crucially includes the main parties representing the interests of the Chinese and the Indians who shun the Islamic fundamentalism of PAS.

Mahathir, who is not running for parliament in these elections for the first time since 1964, also believes it was his treatment of Anwar which caused the swing to PAS.

"In 1999, they exploited the issue of Anwar Ibrahim but now the people have accepted that what has been done was the right thing," Mahathir told reporters this week. - AFP