The Parit parliamentary seat in Perak, an unexpected gain for PAS over an Umno 'big gun' in the 1999 general election, may fall to Barisan Nasional this time around, say opposition leaders.

In 1999, the seat occupied by former Consumer Affairs and Domestic Trade Minister Megat Junid Megat Ayub (photo), fell into the hands of PAS representative Mat Basir Rahmat, albeit by a slim margin of 1,293 votes.

However, giant killer Mat Basir will not be defending his seat, as he has retired from politics following the loss of his post as Parit PAS division chairperson in a factional dispute in June.

"I have left politics altogether. Let the younger ones take over," he said, without going into details of his decision to quit.

New division chairperson Hadi Hassan Johar, when contacted, said the dispute is only a source of "minor friction" between the two.

While acknowledging that the party has only a "50-50 chance" of retaining the seat, he said this is due to the slew of development projects implemented by the government especially over the past year.

Among these are a new mosque complex, prayer halls and civic halls in every village in the constituency, almost all built within the past year, he said.

"The government has made it a point to tar even those roads that see few travellers This is the first time that we have witnessed BN working so hard on such development projects," he said.

"It did not happen in 1990 and 1995. It must mean that BN is hoping for electoral gains from its expenditure. All this makes things more difficult for us to keep the seat."

Parit is dominated by an agricultural community - the population consists of Felcra scheme plantation workers, padi farmers and fruit growers.

Watch on state seats

The upcoming elections will also be keenly watched in the two opposition-held state seats within the Parit parliamentary constituency - Belanja and Bota - currently in the hands of PAS and Keadilan respectively.

Hadi Hassan also said last year's redelineation exercise may also cost the party their Belanja state seat.

This saw seven polling stations from neighbouring Manong (Kuala Kangsar) being transferred to semi-rural Belanja, which brought in almost 700 new and primarily non-Malay voters.

Hadi Hassan said an analysis of the past voting patterns shows that these newly-introduced voters are strong BN supporters.

In 1999, Dr Saizul Fazli Mohd of PAS won the Belanja seat over BN's Mohd Zaim Abu Hassan, but with a razor thin majority of 119 votes.

Land applications

Keadilan's Bota state assembly person Kpt (b) Usaili Alias said the rural constituency has remained largely unaffected by the redelineation exercise and that the opposition expects to do better this time.

And this, despite extensive government spending there as well since 1999, said Usaili, who captured the seat by 631 votes in 1999 from BN's Ismail Hasbolah.

Usaili alleged that Umno has been widely distributing basic staples like sugar, flour, rice and oil via the rural development fund meant for the poor, but delivered to residents regardless of their income level.

"I don't believe that this is going to win Umno more votes. There is growing realisation that Umno is baiting people with promises, and not necessarily following through on these," he said.

"The rakyat are well-educated. They know development is the responsibility of the government. For example, prior to the 1999 elections, the land office issued 12,000 forms with the promise of new land allocation. Until now no decision has been made."

Yet, he said, 10 "well connected" individuals were later found out to have received their allocation - and this has become an issue among the affected residents.

Asked whether he was confident of retaining his seat, Usaili would only say: "I have done my part. It is up to the people to decide."

Opposition strength

The Parit, Belanja and Bota seats are crucial for Malay-based opposition parties in Perak, seeing that Umno will be working hard to return to BN's impeccable 1995 record when it won all parliament and state seats.

Parit and Parit Buntar are also only two Malay-dominated parliamentary constituency in opposition hands. Parit Buntar went to PAS vice-president Dr Hassan Mohd Ali, (photo) who defeated (Risda chairperson) Abdul Rahman Suliman of BN by 2,094 votes.

The only other opposition parliamentary seat in Perak is Batu Gajah, held by DAP's Fong Po Kuan.

Based on the 1999 results, the opposition commands only 15 percent of the 52-seated state assembly - DAP has four seats, PAS three and Keadilan, one.

In the forthcoming elections, 24 parliamentary and 59 state seats will be contested.