Amid speculation that MCA vice-presidents Chua Jui Meng and Dr Fong Chan Onn may be dropped from the Barisan Nasional (BN) election line-up, observers offer differing opinions over the likelihood of this scenario as it could lead to a new strife in the recently reunited party.

Policy analyst with the Socio-Economic Development and Research Institute (Sedar) Ong Kian Ming, dismissed the rumour saying the move would be too drastic as both Chua and Fong are not only MCA vice-presidents but also hold ministerial posts.

The former is the health minister while the latter is the human resources minister.

"There may be a reason to remove Chua because of his alignment with the former Team B faction but there is no reason to remove Fong as he was aligned to Team A and is not a threat to (MCA president) Ong Ka Ting," said the analyst whose think tank is linked to Gerakan.

Ong was referring to the two MCA factions which emerged during a protracted party split which originated from a leadership struggle after the 1999 general election.

Team A, the dominant faction, was led by former MCA president Dr Ling Liong Sik while Team B was led by his then deputy Lim Ah Lek.

The open quarrel was reconciled only in May last year after both Ling and Lim resigned from their posts to make way for current president Ka Ting (Ling's protege) and his deputy Chan Kong Choy (Lim's protege).

Johor strongman

Ong acknowledged that the rumour about the political futures of Chua and Fong may be signs that there are still rumblings within the party although the displays of open hostility among the leaders had ceased.

Although relatively senior in the party, both vice-presidents face slim prospects of ascension since the top two posts are already occupied by the younger Ka Ting and Chan.

However, the policy analyst said Fong, for one, is unlikely to challenge the status quo because of his relatively weak influence.

"He does not have good grassroots support and so he is not a threat to Ka Ting. They will not drop him because the party needs intellectual representation," he said. (Fong was an economics lecturer at Universiti Malaysia before his foray into politics).

Although Ka Ting has more reason to be wary of Chua, Ong said the MCA president may choose to counter him by elevating another influential Johor leader - in the shape of Batu Pahat state assemblyperson and Johor exco Dr Chua Soi Leck (no relation to Jui Meng).

"Soi Leck is a local strongman and has served as the state assemblyperson for three terms. Ka Ting may promote him to contest for a parliamentary seat so as to give him a chance to enter national politics. Soi Leck, for instance, spearheaded the recent MCA effort to attract young professionals," he said.

MCA Wanita deputy secretary-general Rita Sim also cast doubt on the speculation saying that it would be "highly unlikely" for Chua and Fong to be cut.

"It is too soon after the Team A/Team B split for the president to take such drastic action. He has to be careful because he has just inherited the presidency and started stabilising the party. At this point, party stability is more important to secure MCA votes for BN," she said.

Weakest link

However, another political observer closely linked to the government said the possibility of such an outcome could not be discounted because of the relatively weak position of the two vice-presidents within the party.

"Nothing is strange in MCA politics. If Ka Ting has to make room for younger leaders, he would have to chop some people out. Chua and Fong are the weakest link now. An upcoming leader is Chua Soi Leck," said the observer who requested anonymity.

He said the rumours have been particularly prevalent in Chua's case because the latter is known to be an outsider even during Team A/Team B split.

Chua was only loosely aligned to Ah Lek's Team B and has been said to even represent a marginal 'Team C' side, said the observer.

"Chua is unprotected now. He was not even supposed to be appointed a minister after the 1999 elections but he has served one term. He may be dropped this time round," he added.

Fight for Puchong

Meanwhile, a source familiar with seat allocation talks within the BN said a more likely casualty of the MCA reshuffling is another vice-president Yap Pian Hon.

Yap, the MP for Serdang, was recently moved to helm the party's newly created division for the Puchong parliamentary constituency.

"The Bangi state seat has been created under Serdang and Bangi is a strong PAS area. It would not be easy for Yap to retain the seat. That is why he was shifted to Puchong.

"But it is not certain that MCA will be given that seat since Gerakan is also fighting for it," said the source.