Known for going against the grain, outspoken Umno Kelantan leader Ibrahim Ali did not disappoint his audience yesterday when he offered some frank views on the upcoming general election and the new government leadership.

As a start, the former Pasir Mas division leader and veteran Kelantan politician dismissed rife speculation of an early general election next month and said from all indications, a June date appeared a safer bet.

"I don't think it will be March. I anticipate that it will take place in May or early June so I would expect Parliament to be dissolved in the middle of May or at the end of April," he said when met before speaking at the 'Kedai Kopi' talk series organised by young professionals group Promuda in Kuala Lumpur.

Among the 'signs' suggesting a later date, said Ibrahim, is the progress of the Election Commission in conducting election courses. He said the commission has only completed their training in about half the states nationwide.

Another indication is his observation that Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Deputy Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak have only made visits to a few states.

He also pointed to the progress of the ruling party's seat allocation exercise, which only recently saw the submission of name lists to the Barisan Nasional supreme council.

"It is unlikely that everything would be settled in March. From experience, after the names (of prospective candidates) are submitted, it would take at least another two months before finalisation," he said.

Rumours of an early election gained credence of late in view of actions taken by the government which won widespread public approval. These include the appointment of the police commission and arrest of high profile public figures on graft charges.

March cropped up as a possible month due to a week-long national school break which would enable schools to be used as polling stations, a frequent practice in the past. After March, the next school holidays would be in June.

New Kelantan 'crisis'?

Meanwhile, the actual date of the polls is also expected to affect Ibrahim's political fortunes directly as he was one of four Kelantan division heads who were replaced in a reshuffling exercise in December by Umno Kelantan Liaison Committee chief Mustafa Mohamad.

Previous reports have raised the possibility that he may contest as an independent candidate with the support of PAS should he not be fielded as an Umno candidate in his former constituency, Pasir Mas.

However, questioned about this, Ibrahim merely said: "I do not want to comment on this at this time".

Ibrahim first won the Pasir Mas parliamentary seat in 1986 as a BN candidate. He won the seat again in 1990 after his crossover to Semangat 46, the Umno breakaway faction led by former vice-president Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.

He later rejoined Umno but lost the Pasir Mas seat in the 1995 general election and was appointed a senator. He also contested unsuccessfully for the constituency in 1999.

During the question-and-answer session after the talk, Ibrahim insisted that he had no idea why he was dropped from the state leadership line-up.

"Some people may feel that I am too vocal and unpredictable. But if this is a problem, how do you explain that Mustafa also lost his seat in the last general election? He is very soft-spoken. That is why (the demotion) is hard to accept," said the politician who has often been branded "maverick" and a firebrand for his views.

Ibrahim said the Kelantan Liaison Committee had also submitted a report to the prime minister which recommended the dismissal of several leaders to improve the party's chances at the polls.

"I agree with that but I don't agree that I should be removed. I compare myself with the others and I can say that I am a better (leader)," he said.

Nik Aziz factor

On BN's fortunes in Kelantan, Ibrahim said aside from the Gua Musang constituency currently held by Razaleigh, the ruling coalition will face slim chances even with the positive vibes generated by the change of administration.

He gave Mustafa marginal chances of winning the parliamentary seat of Jeli and said much would depend on whether the latest 'crisis' over the sacking of the four Kelantan divisional leaders could be resolved.

"In 1999, Mustafa was heading two ministries but even then, he lost by about 400 votes. In the past, crises in parties have turned voters away. In the 1970s, when there was a split in PAS, BN gained control of the state. PAS won back Kelantan in 1990 because of the Umno split. Now, there is this issue of my sacking.

"I am not saying that Mustafa cannot win but it will not be easy. I would say he has a 50-50 chance. And if it is hard for him, it will be even harder for the rest," he said, adding that two other prominent candidates - liaison committee members Zaid Ibrahim and Dr Awang Adek Hussin - lack experience as first time contestants.

Responding to a question on whether Umno could ever break PAS' monopoly on Kelantan under the leadership of Menteri Besar Nik Aziz Nik Mat, Ibrahim acknowledged that the "Nik Aziz factor" was significant and presented an insurmountable challenge to Umno.

"Nik Aziz is like an untouchable keramat (charm) to PAS. Umno has put Mustafa in Kelantan to match him but what they must do is to look for an ulama to match Nik Aziz," he said.

Ibrahim said the only way up for Umno would be for Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to continue showing the public that he is serious about instituting good governance.

"BN politicians have to (engage) the grassroots and not by organising parties or picnics for the young. They have to prove that they are serious about addressing issues like poverty and corruption. If this goes ahead, it might stabilise the economy and help create jobs. Maybe then the young will support," he said.

Ibrahim was the third guest speaker at Promuda's talk series aimed at offering the opportunity for young professionals to interact with influential politicians in the country.

The first speaker was Umno supreme council member and former Umno youth chief Ahmad Zahid Hamidi while the second speaker was DAP chairperson Lim Kit Siang.