Anwar: Gov't dodging analysis on ETP's flaws
Published: Dec 27, 2011 12:04 PM | Updated: Dec 27, 2011 2:47 PM
The Najib Abdul Razak administration has yet to respond to estimations that its economic blueprint will cause between 7 qnd 8.3 million Malaysians to earn less than RM1,500 by 2020, which as a whole will make Malaysia poorer, says PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim.
The Najib Abdul Razak administration has yet to respond to estimations that its economic blueprint will cause between 7 qnd 8.3 million Malaysians to earn less than RM1,500 by 2020, which as a whole will make Malaysia poorer, says PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim.
In a statement today, Anwar said this is the crux of his Dec 15 speech alleging that the government’s Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) would leave more Malaysians categorised as urban poor compared to now.
“This figure includes 51 percent of the national labour force in 2020, compared with 56 percent for 2009. This figure shows that despite billions of ringgit spent, the improvement is marginal,” said Anwar, who was a former finance minister.
He argued that the ETP would not only fail to improve household incomes, but would instead cause more poverty because of an unsound economic planning.
Anwar said his analysis had pointed out that the ETP projects were based on unrealistic assumptions, such as a 3.6 percent annual increase in wages from 2010 to 2020.
He said that between 2000 and 2009, wages had increased by only 2.6 percent and this had been overtaken by inflation figures.
On the ETP’s assumption of 2.8 percent inflation used to deduce the programme’s projections, Anwar said this was unrealistic because for the past 12 months, inflation figures had been hovering at the 3 percent mark.
“The goal of achieving gross national income per capita of RM48,000 annually by 2020 is unachievable if inflation is more than 2.8 percent in the coming years.
“If inflation (from now) until 2020 averages at 4 percent, it is estimated that about 7.6 million Malaysians will have an annual income of less than RM1,500 monthly by 2020, up by bone million from 2009,” he said.
Those affected would rise to 8.3 million if the average inflation rate was at 6 percent.
Anwar said the government had also failed to respond to his analysis that the income disparity would be increasing, and that the income to GDP ratio would decrease from 40 percent in 2009 to 33 percent in 2020.
“This is the main problem in our country, where only a minority - their families and cronies - amass wealth while the majority is burdened by high living costs and stagnating wages,” he said.
Analysts from Pemandu - a government unit that is the chief architect of the ETP - have claimed that Anwar’s figures are misleading and that inflation figures should be excluded from projections, which are based on real growth.
In a statement today, Anwar said this is the crux of his Dec 15 speech alleging that the government’s Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) would leave more Malaysians categorised as urban poor compared to now.
“This figure includes 51 percent of the national labour force in 2020, compared with 56 percent for 2009. This figure shows that despite billions of ringgit spent, the improvement is marginal,” said Anwar, who was a former finance minister.He argued that the ETP would not only fail to improve household incomes, but would instead cause more poverty because of an unsound economic planning.
Anwar said his analysis had pointed out that the ETP projects were based on unrealistic assumptions, such as a 3.6 percent annual increase in wages from 2010 to 2020.
He said that between 2000 and 2009, wages had increased by only 2.6 percent and this had been overtaken by inflation figures.
On the ETP’s assumption of 2.8 percent inflation used to deduce the programme’s projections, Anwar said this was unrealistic because for the past 12 months, inflation figures had been hovering at the 3 percent mark.
“The goal of achieving gross national income per capita of RM48,000 annually by 2020 is unachievable if inflation is more than 2.8 percent in the coming years.
“If inflation (from now) until 2020 averages at 4 percent, it is estimated that about 7.6 million Malaysians will have an annual income of less than RM1,500 monthly by 2020, up by bone million from 2009,” he said.
Those affected would rise to 8.3 million if the average inflation rate was at 6 percent.
Anwar said the government had also failed to respond to his analysis that the income disparity would be increasing, and that the income to GDP ratio would decrease from 40 percent in 2009 to 33 percent in 2020.
“This is the main problem in our country, where only a minority - their families and cronies - amass wealth while the majority is burdened by high living costs and stagnating wages,” he said.
Analysts from Pemandu - a government unit that is the chief architect of the ETP - have claimed that Anwar’s figures are misleading and that inflation figures should be excluded from projections, which are based on real growth.
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