Will PAS ditch 'moderate' approach for Kerdau?
Joseph SipalanPublished: Feb 24, 2011 9:58 AM | Updated: Feb 24, 2011 10:43 AM
ANALYSIS Momentum for PAS has been on a downtrend since losing the Galas by-election in November last year, and the Islamic party is struggling to reverse its fortunes.
This is compounded further by the two by-elections that will be held on March 6, in which the party has to field candidates in Umno strongholds.
ANALYSIS Momentum for PAS has been on a downtrend since losing the Galas by-election in November last year and the Islamic party is struggling to reverse its fortunes.
This is compounded further by the two by-elections that will be held on March 6, in which the party has to field candidates in Umno strongholds.
The Kerdau polls is set to be a defining moment for the Islamic party as the electorate there comprises 90 percent Malay, who are the party's main audience.
Since Umno is expected to win hands down in Kerdau, PAS will be looking to chip away some of its rival's support, at best, in a bid to embarrass Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, whose home state is Pahang.
PAS is also seeking to warm up its state machinery, reportedly to be small and less efficient compared with those in the other states, ahead of a possible snap general election and the Sarawak state polls.
The party has been struggling to keep up with arch-rival Umno in past by-election contests, with the most recent being in Tenang, where BN's Mohd Azahar Ibrahim garnered 6,699 votes, pushing up the coalition's majority, over PAS candidate Normala Sudirman, who managed 2,992 votes.
Unlike Tenang, which is a mixed seat, Kerdau is almost a pure Malay constituency, with close to 90 percent Malay voters, largely made up of Felda settlers and, to some extent, Felcra settlers.
There is another difference between the two seats. In Tenang, PAS
made little or no in-roads in the all-important Felda settlements, while in Kerdau, both PAS and Pakatan partners PKR have been sweating buckets since the 2008 general elections to win the settlers over.
How much of an impact their work has had, however, needs to be tempered with the candidate that they will choose later tonight.
How much will PAS risk?
Like most Malay-majority rural seats, Kerdau voters will most likely warm up to candidates they are familiar with, and whose family background is held in high esteem.
Rumours have been flying around that PAS vice-president cum Pahang commissioner Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man (left) is the likely party candidate for the seat.
The rub for PAS is that should it choose to put up Tuan Ibrahim, the stakes would be that much higher as he would be its highest-ranking casualty should the party lose - which by most calculations is highly probable.
Even the most optimistic in PAS are cautious of their chances, asking whether is it worth sacrificing such a high-ranking leader to achieve the more realistic goal of a reduced majority for BN?
One argument is that a drop - even by a small margin - would be a small victory for the opposition, as it would show that Najib's influence in Pahang is not as all-encompassing as made to be.
This is where Pakatan is expected to focus its attention on, in a bid to use Kerdau as a measure of Najib's popularity and ultimately, as a people's referendum of the prime minister going into the Sarawak polls.
No small task
To say that Pakatan is fighting an uphill battle, however, would be an understatement, especially considering that Najib had, for a good seven years, been in charge of Felda.
A sizeable bulk of Kerdau's 8,451 voters are Felda settlers, and coupled with Najib's pedigree - his father and second Prime Minister Abdul Razak Hussein being Pekan MP as well as the founder of the Felda scheme - the opposition will need more than fancy rhetoric to sway the masses.
This raises the issue of the PAS strategy in this contest.
After a string of by-election losses where it has been unable to gain significant Malay support, the party decided to launch a Malay empowerment campaign last week, seen as a bid to counter the tried-and-tested Umno slogan of Ketuanan Melayu.
Kerdau could become the defining battle for PAS on whether the Islamic party will continue with its current "moderate" approach to fulfilling its political goals, or return to the old hardline stance as a means to counter Umno's arguably successful pro-Malay position.
And if deputy premier and Umno number two Muhyiddin Yassin's claim that 54 percent of Kerdau's electorate are Umno members is true, then the question of PAS' position, and within Pakatan as well, becomes all the more pressing.
This is compounded further by the two by-elections that will be held on March 6, in which the party has to field candidates in Umno strongholds.
The Kerdau polls is set to be a defining moment for the Islamic party as the electorate there comprises 90 percent Malay, who are the party's main audience.
Since Umno is expected to win hands down in Kerdau, PAS will be looking to chip away some of its rival's support, at best, in a bid to embarrass Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, whose home state is Pahang. PAS is also seeking to warm up its state machinery, reportedly to be small and less efficient compared with those in the other states, ahead of a possible snap general election and the Sarawak state polls.
The party has been struggling to keep up with arch-rival Umno in past by-election contests, with the most recent being in Tenang, where BN's Mohd Azahar Ibrahim garnered 6,699 votes, pushing up the coalition's majority, over PAS candidate Normala Sudirman, who managed 2,992 votes.
Unlike Tenang, which is a mixed seat, Kerdau is almost a pure Malay constituency, with close to 90 percent Malay voters, largely made up of Felda settlers and, to some extent, Felcra settlers.
There is another difference between the two seats. In Tenang, PAS
made little or no in-roads in the all-important Felda settlements, while in Kerdau, both PAS and Pakatan partners PKR have been sweating buckets since the 2008 general elections to win the settlers over.
How much of an impact their work has had, however, needs to be tempered with the candidate that they will choose later tonight.
How much will PAS risk?
Like most Malay-majority rural seats, Kerdau voters will most likely warm up to candidates they are familiar with, and whose family background is held in high esteem.
Rumours have been flying around that PAS vice-president cum Pahang commissioner Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man (left) is the likely party candidate for the seat. The rub for PAS is that should it choose to put up Tuan Ibrahim, the stakes would be that much higher as he would be its highest-ranking casualty should the party lose - which by most calculations is highly probable.
Even the most optimistic in PAS are cautious of their chances, asking whether is it worth sacrificing such a high-ranking leader to achieve the more realistic goal of a reduced majority for BN?
One argument is that a drop - even by a small margin - would be a small victory for the opposition, as it would show that Najib's influence in Pahang is not as all-encompassing as made to be.
This is where Pakatan is expected to focus its attention on, in a bid to use Kerdau as a measure of Najib's popularity and ultimately, as a people's referendum of the prime minister going into the Sarawak polls.
No small task
To say that Pakatan is fighting an uphill battle, however, would be an understatement, especially considering that Najib had, for a good seven years, been in charge of Felda.
A sizeable bulk of Kerdau's 8,451 voters are Felda settlers, and coupled with Najib's pedigree - his father and second Prime Minister Abdul Razak Hussein being Pekan MP as well as the founder of the Felda scheme - the opposition will need more than fancy rhetoric to sway the masses.
This raises the issue of the PAS strategy in this contest.
After a string of by-election losses where it has been unable to gain significant Malay support, the party decided to launch a Malay empowerment campaign last week, seen as a bid to counter the tried-and-tested Umno slogan of Ketuanan Melayu.
Kerdau could become the defining battle for PAS on whether the Islamic party will continue with its current "moderate" approach to fulfilling its political goals, or return to the old hardline stance as a means to counter Umno's arguably successful pro-Malay position.
And if deputy premier and Umno number two Muhyiddin Yassin's claim that 54 percent of Kerdau's electorate are Umno members is true, then the question of PAS' position, and within Pakatan as well, becomes all the more pressing.
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