Think-tank predicts 3,000-vote win for BN

Despite repeated expressions of confidence by Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin that BN will win tomorrow's Tenang by-election by a 5,000-vote majority, a think tank forecasts only 3,000 votes - still a tad higher than in 2004.

Independent think tank Ilham Centre speculated that the BN would bag 6,000 to 7,000 votes to defeat PAS, which would be left with some 4,000 votes.

"BN is expected to get 73.1 percent of the Malay votes, 48.6 percent of Chinese votes, 50 percent of Indian votes and 75 percent from the other races," said the Ilham Centre report released this morning.

Its survey of 549 voters drawn from various ethnic groups and of different ages was carried out from Jan 26 to 28 to assess views on political parties, candidates and get a hand on voting behaviour.

As much as 65.2 percent of respondents said they would vote for the BN but only 13.7 percent favoured PAS. Another 21.1 percent was undecided.

The survet also revealed that only six percent of the Malays, 30.1 percent Chinese and 25 percent Indians in Tenang expressed support for PAS. More than 20 percent of the respondents from each ethnic group remained undecided.

Meanwhile, newly established think-tank Centre for Strategic Engagement (Cense) today revised downward its assessment yesterday that BN would secure 48 to 51 percent of the Chinese votes to 45 to 48 percent, making an achievable majority of 3,000.

Chinese community letdown possible

Pakatan Rakyat last night held its biggest dinner ceramah since nomination day, attracting more than 1,200 passionate local folk. The overwhelming response from the crowd caused many political observers to revisit their forecasts.

The 5,766 Chinese voters make up 39 percent of the Tenang electorate.

The survey by Ilham Centre warned that Pakatan may not get the huge support its is banking on from the Chinese community.

"In Labis town and other Chinese-predominated polling districts, Ilham Centre found that the Chinese support for PAS was not very strong, although there was silent protest against the BN among them.

"This can be seen from the absence of BN flags in Chinese houses compared with the Malay kampung," read the report.

It also pointed out that Chinese voters did not have full confidence in Pakatan because the coalition machinery was not perceived to be as united as BN.

Awareness of cooperation among opposition component parties was still low among Malay voters, the report said.

Hamstrung by faulty machinery

"The BN media managed to manipulate several issues relating to this and the campaign of the PAS candidate also failed to convince the voters. For example, during the house-to-house visits by Normala, she was not accompanied by leaders other than those from PAS."

On the three Felda settlements, where most Malay voters reside, the report said PAS machinery was still unable to penetrate these Umno strongholds despite intensified campaigns and house-to-house visits.

"PAS has highlighted Normala's (right) image as a teacher to target women voters and government servants, but according to responses from the Malay traditional kampung, such as Kg Tenang, Pekan Ayer Panas and Kg Redong, no significant shift of support was found."

The report concluded that the opposition machinery was unable to change the political views of Felda settlers, although second generation settlers were found to have a more rational political stance and were starting to accept Pakatan.

According to the survey, a political party is a bigger factor than candidates. A total of 62.5 percent of the Tenang voters said they would vote because of the party, rather than the candidate.

Both candidates command high popularity among voters. Out of 10 voters, nine know BN candidate Azahar Ibrahim, who is known to them as "Tok Ai", while eight out of 10 recognised PAS candidate Normala Sudirman or "Cikgu Mala".

The survey reaffirmed the people's perception that MCA's assault on Normala's refusal to shake hands with male members of the community hardly any impact on her.

Also, Azahar's alleged land sale scandal and the issue of Normala's husband abusing sick leave to campaign were also not enough to affect the voting trend.