Transport Minister and MCA president Dr Ling Liong Sik is likely to prove his critics wrong by relinquishing his ministerial position and presidency of the MCA before the year is out, said two policy analysts.

In separate interviews with malaysiakini today, the two political analysts said although infighting within the MCA is a factor behind Ling's wish to resign both in May 2000 and Aug 2002, two crucial developments are likely to ensure a different outcome this time around.

According to policy analyst Ong Kian Ming, one of these developments is the intensified squabbling among leaders aligned to one of two party factions Team A led by Ling and Team B led by MCA deputy president Lim Ah Lek while another is the resignation of Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad set for October this year.

"I think it would take place within a span of six months to a year, before the general elections ... I feel that the resignation offer is genuine. There has been speculation of this over the past few months," said Ong, who has been a close political observer of MCA.

"There has been disunity within the party and (Ling) may also be affected by court cases against him. By stepping down, all these issues could be resolved," he added.

"Furthermore, the infighting (back in May 2000) was not as bad as it is now and the prime minister did not announce his resignation then. These are new developments."

Liability to Umno?

Another analyst, executive director of the Socio-Economic Development and Research Institute (Sedar) Khoo Kay Peng, agreed that "new unforeseen forces" had motivated Ling's renewed offer to resign.

"The political forces is one but it is also tied to his own personal problems. These have become a baggage to MCA. Ling will be leaving anytime soon. The PM will probably endorse the resignation in a month or two. That is probably why the matter was brought up by the PM," he said.

Ling made the shock announcement to the press on Tuesday following the Barisan Nasional supreme council meeting which was initially set to discuss the fate of two Penang MCA state assemblypersons who had failed to vote against a motion to delay the controversial Penang Outer Ring Road project (Porr).

Ling revealed that the premier had brought up the matter during the three-hour close-door supreme council meeting but Mahathir, who had earlier chaired a separate press conference, did not mention the matter.

Commenting further on the issue, Khoo said Mahathir would want Ling's departure to ensure a smooth transition for the premier's chosen successor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

"Ling does not have much choice but to leave because of the PM's own resignation plans. For the PM to leave (his post) he has to ensure a smooth succession for Abdullah. For that, he has to first solve the MCA strife," said Khoo, whose think-tank Sedar is linked to Gerakan.

"(Another reason why I think) this is genuine is because Ling initiated the press briefing. If he does not step down, the public will not be kind to him. He will have to stand by his announcement."

Weak support to blame

Meanwhile, the analysts opined that Ling's problems, which had once ensure that he could remain in power, have now reached a point where they become a liability to his erstwhile behind-the-scene supporters.

"Parties opposed to the MCA wanted Ling to remain as president because (his problems) meant that he was in a weaker position (vis-a-vis) the parties," said Khoo.

"Ling's ability to remain as MCA president has been linked to his weaknesses with respect to Umno's influence. However, there comes a point that Umno too has to weigh the pros and cons of having Ling as president," said Ong.

Ong pointed out that responses to two recent developments one involving the initial opposition by MCA to the implementation of English language teaching of Science and Maths for Chinese primary schools, and the other the Porr highway project showed that "time is running out" for Ling as the head of the biggest Chinese party in the country.

In both incidents, MCA was strongly attacked by Umno leaders for its opposition to the language switch plan and the its unwillingless to sack the two errant MCA Penang state assemblyperson who refused to vote against the Porr project, as reflected in press reports in Umno-controlled Malay language dailies and the New Straits Times.

A compromise was later reached on the language switch issue whereby Chinese primary schools were allowed greater flexibility in implementing the policy within regular school hours.

"There has been concern that Ling may not have sufficient support within the Chinese community," Ong added.

No easy solution

In addition, the analyst dismissed the possibility that Ling may quit his cabinet post but remain as MCA president until the 2005 party elections.

"I don't think it is possible for him to hold on to the presidency after quitting as minister. This is one of the reasons why he has not stepped down yet as minister. He has stayed on because succession within MCA is still not clear," Ong explained.

"If he quits as minister, Deputy Finance Minister Chan Kong Choy (from Team B) could be elevated to replace Ling in the cabinet. However, the MCA presidency would not be so easy to resolve."

On the likely succession plan should Ling leave, both analysts said that the obvious choice would be Minister of Housing and Local Government Ong Ka Ting, a party vice-president and Ling's protege.

"The likely successor to Ling would be Ka Ting ... Ling has to find ways and means to put his supporters in strategic positions so as to ensure that he is protected (after retiring from politics). However, there would definitely be negotiations with Team B members," said Khoo.

"Ka Ting may occupy the top spot but there would have to be a compromise whereby a leader aligned to the Team B faction will occupy the second spot. By seniority, it would have to be Health Minister Chua Jui Meng," added Ong.

Compromise possible

Asked if the departure of both Ling and his deputy Lim (photo) from the party would enable other leaders to close ranks once again, Ong said, "Although Ka Ting is aligned to Team A, it does not mean that he has bad blood with the other leaders."

"In politics, you don't make permanent enemies. The main problem in MCA has been Ling, so without him, a compromise would not be difficult," said Khoo.

"Ka Ting would have to play the healing hand to consolidate his position. He is young and would be more forceful than Ling in a lot of things (in relation to other BN parties). He is likely to work well with (Team B members) Chan Kong Choy and Chua Jui Meng," he added.

The split within MCA originated from a succession understanding between Ling and Lim that went awry as early as 1999. In the original plan, the two top MCA leaders had agreed to step down together to make way for a younger crop of leaders and their respective supporters.

However, the party split into two camps after Chan was not given a ministerial post in the cabinet following the 1999 general elections as earlier promised. This later boiled over with the controversial takeover of the Nanyang Press Holdings by MCA investment arm Huaren Management Sdn Bhd a move that was opposed by Team B leaders.

A truce was reached last April following the intervention of Mahathir to prevent potential backlash against BN in terms of Chinese electoral support and it was decided that there would be no contest for party posts until 2005.

However, despite the peace deal, the two factions in the Chinese-based party the second largest in the ruling coalition continue to lock horns.