Tough options for both sides in Hulu S'gor

However, Anwar’s second outing in the Felda settlement of Kampung Desa Maju - in rural Hulu Selangor and an Umno stronghold - attracted only a modest crowd of 400. It goes to show that PKR has difficulties in making inroads among the rural Malay communities.

Meanwhile, Najib kick-started BN’s campaign last Saturday (above) with a bang - he had his customary walkabouts in the streets of Kuala Kubu Bahru. This is a rare departure from the BN tradition where the prime minister often takes a backseat while the deputy prime minister leads the charge for by-elections.

Najib’s walkabout was cheered by three busloads of college students ferried from Cheras who were seen repeatedly chanting ‘1Malaysia’, the slogan coined by Najib when he took power exactly a year ago.

Seven seats needed

Officially, the purpose of the walkabout has more to do with celebrating Najib’s one-year anniversary as PM with his popularity at an all-time high of 68 percent, according to the latest Merdeka Centre poll.

This is an impressive performance given his support level which was hovering around 41 percent in February last year - two months before he took over the premiership from his embattled predecessor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

In his speech at Kuala Kubu Bahru, Najib said Pakatan Rakyat’s unexpected win in Hulu Selangor in the 2008 general elections should be seen as a ‘loan’ to the opposition and it was time for the seat to be returned to BN.

He boasted that a win for BN in this by-election will move the ruling coalition one step closer to regaining its much-coveted two-thirds majority in Parliament. With the recent spate of parliamentarians defecting from the opposition, BN needs just another seven seats to reach the magic figure.

Najib’s confidence is understandable - BN won Hulu Selangor for 11 general elections since 1959. The only time it lost was in 2008 and that too by a razor-thin majority of 198 votes out of a total electorate of 63,600.

However, Najib seemed to have changed his tune later when he told Bernama in an interview that the real test of BN’s recovery was the next general elections.

PKR’s election chief Fuziah Salleh claimed Najib’s u-turn came after he realised that Hulu Selangor was not going to be that easy a target after his walkabout.

Nevertheless, the Hulu Selangor by-election is crucial for BN in its bid to regain Selangor after unexpectedly losing the most affluent state to Pakatan two years ago.

MIC’s deputy president G Palanivel (below) - who held Hulu Selangor - for four terms, seems to be the safest bet as the BN candidate. It would be his sixth time contesting the seat. But take a closer look and Palanivel appears to be under siege at all fronts.

First, he has to overcome the resistance from the local Umno division which has lobbied hard for the Malay-based party to field its own candidate.

Banners of their favoured candidate, former Selangor MB Muhd Muhammad Taib - who was once state assembly representative for Batang Kali, one of three seats under the Hulu Selangor constitutency - greeted Najib when he visit the area last Saturday.

The local leaders argued that Muhammad Taib could bring the Bagan Pinang effect to Hulu Selangor. They were referring to the last by-election where former Negeri Sembilan MB Isa Abdul Samad won big on the back of his own personal influence in that constituency.

Apparently, Umno leaders and the local population do not think highly of Palanivel’s past achievements, blaming him for not doing enough to bring development to the sleepy hollow.

While Palanivel lost the seat by 198 votes, the number of spoilt votes was 1,466 - seven times the majority, which underscored the strong undercurrent against the MIC leader.

Palanivel’s close ties to MIC president S Samy Vellu (left in pix), who has lost much of his shine among Indian voters, is also considered a disadvantage. Furthermore, Palanivel’s re-entry into Parliament could also threaten the position of party secretary-general Dr S Subramanian, who holds the sole MIC seat in the cabinet.

Samy Vellu’s newspaper Tamil Nesan has since launched a strong attack against his arch rival, former MIC deputy president S Subramanian, for backing a number of independents in order to sabotage Palanivel’s return.

It will not be a smooth ride for PKR either as the opposition party has to choose between a high-flying national leader and a successful local boy. Barring any surprise, Anwar’s pick is either national Pakatan Rakyat coordinator Zaid Ibrahim or Hulu Selangor PKR treasurer Dr Halili Rahmat.

Zaid’s (left) embrace of multiracial politics and his open bashing of right-wing Malay group Perkasa is said to have struck a cord among the Chinese and Indian voters.

However, his cosmopolitan image could be a hurdle in winning over the rural Malay voters which Pakatan badly needs to retain the seat. Zaid’s posturing might also open himself to strigent attacks from Umno’s mouthpiece Utusan Malaysia, which is still the newspaper of choice for rural folks.

Halili, the lesser known local boy, is said to be a nice guy that has attracted little controversy. By fielding him, the party could appeal to the local sentiments as he had failed twice to represent the area - against Palanivel in 1999 and in his bid for the Batang Kali state seat in 2004.

A close friend of PKR leader Anwar (below) Halili was his personal physician when the opposition leader was in jail and as well as one of the founders of PKR.

However, latest developments indicate that Zaid, being factored as a 'heavyweight' national leader, has the edge over Halili.

Part of the opposition’s strategy will be exploiting the split between Umno and MIC and it is hoping that the resulting sluggish Umno machinery will stop BN from regaining the seat.

PKR is also hoping that by fielding a prominent Malay candidate, it will be able to garner enough Malay votes and win over a higher number of Chinese and Indian voters.

This should deliver enough votes to see PKR cross the finish line first though in any case the result will still be a close call.

YONG KAI PING is Malaysiakini’s Chinese Desk editor.

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