Prime Minister and Barisan Nasional chief Najib Abdul Razak's persistent calls on component parties to bring about changes in their leadership and party machinery had put the spotlight on MIC.

This is because the Indian-based political entity is the only party which has not given any clear indication about its leadership transition despite S Samy Vellu continuing as president for more than 30 years.

NONEMIC is also facing an odd situation now whereby both its president and deputy president remain outside the cabinet, something which has never occurred in the last 52 years of the party's participation in the BN government.

However, MIC sources said with the pressure mounting on Samy Vellu to pave the way for a new leadership, efforts are being taken to effect a transition in MIC.

And the first step is for the party's number two G Palanivel to be appointed as senator and cabinet minister.

Replace Dr Subramaniam?

Despite being elected as deputy president for a second consecutive term after defeating party stalwarts S Subramaniam and S Sothinathan, Palanivel is still unable to establish himself as a leader on his own merits because he does not have the benefit of a government position.

Party members and the Indian community also believe that Palanivel's victory in the MIC polls was only made possible because of the open endorsement and campaign by Samy Vellu.

Therefore, speculation is rife that Palanivel's position will be 'strengthened' by appointing him as senator and cabinet minister replacing party vice-president Dr S Subramaniam, who is the human resources minister.

The next senate seat for MIC is expiring on Jan 18, 2010 and is currently held by senator N Rawisandran from Selangor, who is an ardent supporter of Palanivel.

NONESince Rawisandran is closely associated to Palanivel, it would be easy to coax the one-term senator into giving up the seat for Palanivel when his term expires.

If everything goes as planned, Palanivel would be appointed senator in January 2010 replacing Rawisandran.

If by any chance this does not take place, then the next senate seat that is available for Palanivel is the one held by G Logachitra, which would expire on April 5, 2010.

MIC sources said that if at all Palanivel wants to be appointed as senator, he should choose one of these two senate seats because the rest only expire in 2011.

With no certainty as to when the next general election would be called and realising there is a possibility that the BN government might serve its full term until 2013, Palanivel needs to establish himself as a viable alternative to lead MIC when Samy Vellu leaves.

One way of achieving that purpose is to get into a government position as soon as possible.

Palanivel's mission would be not to end up as a mere senator. Party sources said that he has set his eyes on the cabinet minister's post currently held by Subramaniam as he does not want to allow another "power centre" to be developed in the party which might one day overshadow him.

During the party polls in September, Subramaniam's key supporters were openly campaigning against Palanivel in favour of the former deputy president and this factor also seems to have caused some friction in the relationship between Palanivel and the medical doctor turned politician.

NONESamy Vellu had to interfere and assure his and Subramaniam's supporters that the latter would continue as a minister even if Palanivel was re-elected as deputy president.

However, with increasing calls for Samy Vellu to effect a leadership transition in MIC as soon as possible, the present political scenario is set to change.

Today, in MIC, Samy Vellu makes official statements as party president and Subramaniam, although only a vice-president, issues statements on all government matters pertaining to the Indian community since he is a cabinet minister.

Such a situation completely overshadows the existence of a deputy president in the party. If this situation is allowed to continue, Palanivel's supporters fear that sooner or later Subramaniam would emerge politically stronger as the 'defacto' number two.

Avoiding a by-election

Palanivel's rush to become a senator as soon as possible is to also pre-empt a situation whereby he could become a candidate in the event there is a by-election in one of the parliamentary constituencies.

For some time now there have been speculations that one of the parliamentary constituencies formerly held by MIC may face a by-election and naturally, the possible MIC-BN candidate for such a contest would be Palanivel, given his position as deputy president of the party without any government positions.

However, opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat is eager and hungry for a victory in the next by-election after their defeat in Bagan Pinang.

NONEFurthermore, supporters of Palanivel's opponents within MIC who are still smarting from their defeat in the party polls would also be seeking sweet revenge to see that Palanivel is defeated in the by-election.

Therefore, it is a risky venture for Palanivel, who was defeated in the 2008 general election, to attempt to return to the government through a by-election.

Losing a parliamentary seat for a second time in a row would not auger well for his leadership in MIC.

As a senator he could continue comfortably for a few more years until the next general election. By then, he would have the option of choosing a safe parliamentary seat.

Appointing Palanivel as senator and cabinet minister would also ease the pressure on Samy Vellu to step down as he would be seen as facilitating the leadership changes in MIC. It would also pacify the BN leadership.

What remains to be seen is whether Palanivel would be made a cabinet minister replacing Subramaniam or whether Najib would finally accord a second cabinet minister post for MIC thereby pleasing the Indian community further by accepting their long overdue appeal for this.

R MUTHARASAN is an observer and writer on Malaysian politics. He is the web-master of www.indiantoday.net and has also authored the book 'Winning Strategies of Anwar Ibrahim'.