Over the last 18 months, the BN has continued to lose non-Malay votes whether explicitly through several by-elections or implicitly through public impressions. The inability of BN’s main non-Malay component parties in the peninsula to win back these voters, not to mention the many new voters, is a clear sign that there could be a shift in political power come the next general election.

Whilst Umno is only able to maintain its grip on the Malay electorate by championing pro-Malay causes, other BN component parties are unable to convince their constituents that Umno is merely playing to the gallery. bn umno posters in kota bharu 240208 01

Fearmongering, threats and the beating of the ethno-religious drums have led to merely marginal gains. But in a parliamentary race that involves significant numbers of mixed seats, that gain may not be enough to secure power.

Retainining the status quo

Some in the BN believe that if there is a leadership change in MIC, MCA, Gerakan and PPP, all will be well. But this type of thinking is really missing the forest for the trees.

After more than 50 years in power, the BN seems to be set in its ways. Yet, Umno is trying to reform.

If it succeeds in getting rid of the quota system and manages to allow its members to choose and vote for the candidates they want, there is a chance that reform might work. If the ruling elite is destined to lose political monopoly, they might want choose to give up power to those with the same mindset.

NONEThat is the best case scenario for Umno. But a leadership change in the MIC did not happen. Even if Samy Vellu stepped down, the next echelon of leaders are Samy’s men. The status quo remains. Yet the BN cannot condemn Samy Vellu as it claims that the MIC has done a lot for the Indians.

However, by embracing the Makkhal Sakthi party, the PM is tacitly agreeing that the BN has failed the Indian community. This may be right and may be a first step towards redressing issues of poverty involving Indian Malaysians but it is also an acknowledgment that a new delivery mechanism is needed.

The Indian dilemma

If the MIC is ever to recover, the party will have to come clean on the Maika issue. It is MIC’s own PKFZ. More urgent is the socio-economic position of Indian Malaysians. Some have fallen through the cracks and there are few institutional safety nets for them.

So long as the country practices ethnic-based policies, the impression that Indians have been deliberately left out will persist no matter how many times we hear and see 1Malaysia touted.

Similarly, the MCA is finding it tough to dredge up support for the BN’s race-based policies because public perception is that the same system breeds corruption. In the case of the PKFZ scandal, the proportion is so vast that even the practical Chinese are shocked.

If in the old days, the Chinese were easily cowed by images of PAS members in their turbans and flowing robes, they now find “cow-head” protesters and photograph-tearing Umno members infinitely more threatening. The administration of Nik Aziz in Kelantan and the hugely popular Khalid Samad in Shah Alam are clear alternatives to the ethno-nationalists who are hell-bent on a “divide and rule” policy. NONE

There are still nagging doubts about the opposition coalition. Their performance in the four states under their administration can still be improved but the pressures they are under by a federal government bent on frustrating their efforts is also galvanising those who voted for them to stay the course. The takeover of the Perak State government and images of the speaker being forcibly dragged-out of his chair is evidence of the thuggish behaviour that most Malaysians cannot abide by.

Standing without legs

In this by-election, Umno is once again spearheading the BN’s political machinery with little help from its coalition partners. Samy Vellu is busy claiming that Indians are returning to the fold and that he is garnering the votes. There is very little effort from the MCA, whose members are preoccupied with the upcoming Emergency General Meeting. This is perhaps a scenario that Umno might have to get used to: going it alone.

The only problem is that Umno will have to go it alone in many more constituencies all at the same time in the next general election. There is no telling whether Umno has a chance to reform in time to reverse the current trend of voters shunning the BN.

A victory in Bagan Pinang would be a great morale-booster but the real challenge is winning the non-Malay votes. If Umno can do so on its own, then it will strengthen its position even more in the BN. Fail to do so and the liability of its traditional coalition members, the MIC and MCA, becomes even more apparent.

Whatever the outcome, losing Bagan Pinang is not an option for the BN.