Why Subra will win the race

As the heated contest to elect the next deputy president of MIC enters into its final lap amidst hectic campaigns, party stalwarts and political pundits have begun their predictions.

Having read all the interviews and press statements by the candidates, we make an attempt in this article to objectively analyse the outcome of the election and the number of votes each candidate would get in the event they win.

These analysis and conclusions are very objective, based on the present trends in MIC and the extensive discussions held with various campaigners, party stalwarts and delegates to general assembly.

The prediction is that Subra will win by polling about 700 votes.

Looking at the mood of the delegates and the feedback received from the ground, the election trail points to only one conclusion: that S Subramaniam would emerge as the winner when counting of the 1,464 votes ends on the night of Sept 12.

Subra's advantage in this election is that he is entering into the fray with about 500 votes in his favour which comes from his loyal supporters who have stood with him in the party through thick and thin. This estimate is also partly based on the 495 votes he polled in 2006. It must be remembered that in the 2006 party elections Subra polled 495 votes despite party president Samy Vellu and the whole party machinery working against him.

Where will the votes come from?

During the divisional elections early this year, because of the amicable relationship between Samy Vellu and Subra then, there were no real attempts to block Subra's supporters as delegates at the divisional level as it happened in 2006. This resulted in many of Subra's supporters quietly sneaking into the divisions as delegates.

In some divisions, the division chairpersons had accommodated Subra's supporters as delegates just to avoid contests and to safeguard their own position as division head.

In certain divisions where there were contests some of Subra's supporters were able to win as delegates by supporting and aligning themselves with the winning divisional chairperson.

A random survey showed that most of the division chairpersons are supporters of Samy Vellu and therefore are seen to be supporting Palanivelu for deputy president. However, when scrutinised further it can be seen that the majority of the delegates from these divisions are supporters of Subra who are prepared to go against the wishes of their own division chiefs.

All these developments have resulted in Subra having a comfortable lead in the race with about 500 votes in his favour .

The only candidate who can snatch some votes from this 500 block votes of Subra is S Sothinanthan who might be able to do it because of some "personal reasons" and "associations".

However even if it happens, it is expected that such number of votes swaying away from Subra's block votes will not exceed more than 50.

Therefore by conservative estimates Subra is starting off the race with about 450 votes in his favour. There is no way any of these votes would go to Palanivel or Sothinathan under any circumstances.

Whereas Palanivel or Sothinathan do not have this number of block votes to their advantage since they do not enjoy that much of individual support from delegates. If at all they claim to have any such support, it is something "borrowed" from Samy Vellu's own supporters.

From the balance votes of 1,050, Palanivel and Sothinathan would still get at least 200 each from their own supporting delegates. That leaves us with a pool of 650 votes (1,050 - 400) up for grabs by the three candidates. It must be pointed out that these 650 votes also include ardent supporters of Samy Vellu.

So the next question is how many more votes Subra would be able to draw from the balance 650 votes available.

Based on our analysis, we predict that Subra should be able to pull easily about 250 votes from the available 650 votes which many believe is possible because of the following reasons.

Why the votes will go to Subra?

Subra's additional votes (other than his block of 450 votes) are expected to come from Samy Vellu's own supporters and those delegates with a neutral mind who are hoping for a change in the party's direction. Many of Samy Vellu's supporters are unhappy about the choice of Samy Vellu's candidate in Palanivel.

In 2006 Samy Vellu said that Palanivel is the best person to be the deputy president of the party but in the last general election Palanivel lost in his Hulu Selangor constituency which was considered a BN safe seat.

Assuming we accord the reasons of political tsunami which swept across the country during the 2008 general election for the loss of Palanivel in Hulu Selangor, even then within the party and community he has not impressed the party delegates with his performances during the last three years as the party's deputy president.

"Palanivel rarely attends Indian functions and never keeps in touch with party delegates. However, in comparison Subra continues to attend many public functions and keeps in touch with party men by attending their family weddings and funerals even though he is not holding any key position in the party.

"Subra also kept in constant contact with his key supporters all over the country and that is why he was able to emerge as a formidable candidate for deputy presidency even without holding a government position for the last five years since 2004," said a pro-Subra delegate.

The delegates are also disgusted with Samy Vellu's same tunes which he sang about Palanivel three years ago in 2006. Having been the deputy president for the last three years Palanivel should be leading the campaign on his own but the delegates see that even now he doesn't utter a word about his candidacy or his change of directions for the party while Samy Vellu has all the praises for him and does all the campaigns for him.

In this election Samy Vellu is prescribing the same medicine he prescribed for the delegates in 2006, thinking that it will work well again but the "party system" seems to be rejecting it.

Alternatively, this year, what the majority of the delegates are looking for in the candidacy of deputy president is a candidate who would be independent and have the political will and determination to steer the party away from its present shambles. They want real changes and reforms.

The party's rank and file also realise that nothing has been done to revamp the party since its debacle at the 2008 elections. They feel only a person of Subra's stature would be able to bring about the reforms they envisage for the party and not someone who needs Samy Vellu to campaign for him again even after serving for three years as deputy president.

Going by these sentiments it is clear that Samy Vellu's supporters are switching their allegiance to Subra in this election. There are at least about 300 to 400 delegates who would listen and follow Samy Vellu but a chunk of these votes are bound to break away Samy Vellu's clutches and the question now is whether the break-away votes will go to Subra or Sothinathan.

Some of Samy Vellu's key allies and staunch supporters have come out publicly to voice their support for Subra, suggesting that many of Samy Vellu's own supporters may cast their votes in favour of Subra in this election. G Pasamanickam (former Johor state chief), Dr Subramaniam (former Kedah chief) and V Govindaraj (former vice-resident) who were all at one time vocal supporters of Samy Vellu have expressed their unequivocal support for Subra.

In addition to Samy Vellu's hardcore supporters there are also neutral minded delegates who love the party and are really hoping for changes and reforms. These delegates are also rooting for Subra.

These "neutral" delegates are of the opinion that by electing Palanivel or Sothinathan, the party will not change for the better and will still remain under the shadows of Samy Vellu.

Samy's endorsed line-up not going down well

Another factor working in favour of Subra is the fact that Samy Vellu is putting up his own endorsed line-up for all the positions. The general consensus among the delegates is that Samy Vellu as the outgoing president should not be dictating candidates for each and every contested position in the party but should leave it to the good judgement of the delegates.

One party leader who followed Samy Vellu all over the country during the party's re-branding exercise sessions conducted last year said that most delegates expressed their desire to see an open contest for party positions without any endorsement from the president and Samy Vellu always nodded in agreement. "But now he is going against their wishes" said the party leader.

Fixing even to the extent of who should be the 23 CWC members to be elected by proposing 27 names seems to have irked the delegates who are determined to resist such moves. The delegates feel that such moves by Samy Vellu as an insult to their own intelligence and their democratic right to elect their own leaders.

In 2006 Subra had a tough time even meeting the delegates as many were virtually hiding away from him for fear of repercussions from Samy Vellu. But this year they are coming out bravely in droves and do not fear Samy Vellu anymore as he is not a minister now.

The writings on the wall are also so clear that Samy Vellu is on his way out. There are also strong rumours that the BN leadership may exert pressure on Samy Vellu to vacate his presidency after the general assembly as MIC is the only party which has not undergone a leadership transition since the 2008 elections.

Going by the past by-elections the BN is having a tough-time convincing the Indian voters to vote for BN with Samy Vellu still around as MIC president and by now the BN leadership must be jittery having realised that the Bagan Pinang state seat in Negeri Sembilan facing a by-election soon has about 20 percent Indian voters.

Therefore coupled with all these factors Samy Vellu's threats and pressures to vote for a particular candidate are not working on the delegates this time.

Support from Dr Subra's camp

Subra is also getting some support from an unexpected source and that is from the supporters of Dr S Subramaniam (left), the party's secretary-general and cabinet minister contesting for vice-presidency. Dr Subra has earned the support and respect of many delegates in his short political career due to his pleasant disposition and his supporters are worried that he might be replaced as a cabinet minister if Palanivel or Sothinathan win as deputy president.

Since both Palanivel and Sothinathan have not served as senators, they could be appointed as one to take up a cabinet position in the event either one of them emerge as the next deputy president.

However, since Subra has already served two full-terms as senator, he cannot become a senator again according to the existing laws. Therefore, Dr Subra's supporters are throwing their support behind Subra for deputy presidency and with that they expect Dr Subra to continue as the minister until the next general elections.

By supporting Subra, these supporters of Dr Subra are also hoping that eventually he would be accommodated as the next acting deputy president when Subra assumes the presidency. It must be pointed out that it is a foregone conclusion that Dr Subra would win as the first vice-president with highest votes.

It is also no secret that the Tamil media played an active role in disseminating news on MIC elections which has a profound effect on the minds of the delegates.

Two of the three Tamil dailies are openly supporting Subra for deputy presidency. Makkal Osai which is closely aligned to Subra acts as the campaign voice for Subra by daily publishing his past services with photographs on its front page.

Whereas Malaysia Nanban having the largest circulation among the three also publishes articles and news favouring Subra. While the daily publishes news and views favouring all the three deputy presidential candidates, their editorial comments and presentations are more inclined to Subra.

The support and publicity generated from these two Tamil dailies are also helping Subra in his battle to capture the attention of the delegates most of whom follow the Tamil newspapers every day.

Subra's set-backs

However, Subra is not without his weaknesses and set-backs in this election.

The fact that he is the first prominent leader in MIC to come out in support of Samy Vellu after the general election debacle by saying "I will work with Samy Vellu to build back the party" is still not forgotten by some delegates since everyone then saw party president as the main cause for MIC's downfall.

When the whole party was hoping for some changes and new directions after the 2008 general election, it was Subra who went to the aid of Samy Vellu by giving him another lifeline, a move which angered many in the party and even his close supporters.

Such sentiments may work against Subra and may translate into some votes against him.

Samy Vellu's constant tirade against Subra and Subra's counter-attacks on Samy Vellu in retaliation are also not going down well with the delegates. They see these exchanges between the two as a trailer for the leadership tussle that is about to unfold when the elections are over, which may plunge the party further into turmoil.

Therefore, these delegates are unhappy and fed-up with the on-going fiery exchanges between the two leaders may decide not to vote for Subra or Palanivel and may opt for a third choice in Sothinathan.

Alternatively, Samy Vellu's hardcore supporters may decide to stick with Samy Vellu and support Palanivel because of Subra's attack on Samy Vellu.

There is also a sentiment currently prevailing in the party that the party's problems are because of the 30 years of infighting between Samy Vellu and Subra and that the time has come for the party to shift its focus to some other neutral candidate to lead the party. Delegates with such thinking may vote in favour of Sothinathan avoiding Subra.

Another factor that is working against Subra is that since both he and Palanivel are in their sixties age group, a real "change" in the party means electing someone younger like Sothinathan as the next deputy president.

There is also another "fear factor" fanned by Samy Vellu's camp working against Subra. Since Samy Vellu has openly declared that he would remain as president until 2012, some delegates fear that all those supporting Subra now would be put on "chopping block" by Samy Vellu when the elections are over. Within three months from the date of the elections the branch leaders and delegates may have to get back into the good books of Samy Vellu to obtain their "B-forms" (a clearance certificate from MIC HQ to hold the branch AGM) from him as he would still be continuing as president. Such "fearing" delegates may stick with Samy Vellu's choice of candidates without voting for Subra.

Subra is also unable to throw promises of party positions or other "incentives" to the delegates to secure votes since he is fighting the battle as an underdog. Samy Vellu meanwhile is in a position to promise something to the delegates in exchange for their votes. This could also work against Subra as he may not be able to please some delegates hoping for "something".

Even with all these weaknesses and setbacks, a wave of hope is gaining momentum among the delegates and party men that Subra is the only candidate who would be able to change the cause of the party for the better by uniting the Indian community together under the MIC umbrella.

Chances of Palani and Sothi

As far as Palanivel is concerned there is only one way he would be able to retain his seat and that is if the majority of the delegates obediently follow the instructions from Samy Vellu.

Even if that happens Palanivel would only be able to garner between 550 to 600 votes provided that the balance votes are equally divided between Sothinathan and Subra.

This is unlikely to take place as the bulk of the delegates are also becoming tired of the "over campaigning" by Samy Vellu.

Many delegates also fear that a victory for Palanivel will see the emergence of Vel Paari (Samy Vellu's son) as a dominant force in the party, something the delegates would want to avoid at all costs.

The chances of Samy Vellu-Palanivel team performing the same miracle they executed so well in 2006 is not possible in today's situation because of another stumbling block - Sothinathan, who will definitely snatch away some votes meant for Palanivel.

As far as Sothinathan is concerned either he would win the race or would be a contributory factor for Palanivel's defeat.

Sothinathan stands a better chance securing more votes than Palanivel. He will be able to draw his votes from three sources. Samy Vellu's ardent supporters unhappy about Palanivel's candidature are supporting Sothinathan because he also comes from the same "Samy Vellu's school" and was once considered a blue-eyed boy of Samy Vellu.

The second source of votes for Sothinathan comes from delegates who are not Samy Vellu's supporters but at the same time not in favour of Subra becoming the deputy president again.

Finally the third segment of votes for Sothinathan will come from young and "neutral" delegates who may want the party not to be embroiled in another Samy-Subra fight after the party elections.

Sothinathan's determination and courage to fight even his mentor has caught the attention of some delegates who think that as the youngest candidate, he might be the right person to lead the party by giving it a new and fresh face.

Since this is a three-cornered fight the winning candidate might need just about 550 votes to clinch a victory provided the other two candidates split the balance 950 votes equally between them.

Samy Vellu is not slowing down with his campaign against Subra and word has it that Samy Vellu is now calling up and meeting the delegates one-to-one, breaking away from his traditional "meet-the -delegates" sessions.

This may result in a situation where the votes between Subra and Palanivel being divided equally with Sothi getting the minimum 550 votes to pass through the finishing line with a small lead.

However, the majority of the delegates feel that Sothinathan would not have the political muscle and popular support to push out a giant like Samy Vellu and steer the party away from his tyranny, something which Subra might be able to do if he wins.

Many also fear that a win by Sothinathan will result in Samy Vellu and Sothinathan kissing and hugging each other and thereafter the party will be back to its old path again.

Sothinathan will also be in no hurry to push out Samy Vellu because of his age-factor. However, what the delegates are yearning for is a transition of power and not mere election of a new deputy president.

Since all these factors are stacked against Sothinathan, the chances of he pulling a surprise win agains Subra is still very very slim.

In conclusion

Therefore based on all these factors and developments the additional votes that Subra would be able to garner in addition to his 450 block votes could easily exceed 250 which means Subra will end up with more than 700 votes. Assuming Subra gets 50 percent of the total votes cast, he should be able to poll 732 votes which is not too difficult.

With the balance 800 votes being divided between Palanivel and Sothinathan, Subra would be able to finish off the race with a comfortable margin to snatch away the deputy presidency from Palanivel.

But hold on... all is not over yet!

Subra, as the newly elected deputy president of MIC will then have to march to the grounds of Bagan Pinang by-election to show the BN and the Indian community that he is not only the right choice for the leadership of MIC but also the right man to convince the 20 percent odd Indian voters in that constituency to vote for BN.

Not only that, the newly elected deputy president of MIC has to devise his post election strategies to oust Samy Vellu as the president as soon as possible so that he himself does not end-up as the next "Chua Soi Lek"!