Not exactly a landslide
Jeffrey TanPublished: Feb 25, 2001 12:51 AM | Updated: Jan 29, 2008 10:21 AM
All is not always what it seems. Far from the "landslide victory", "resounding success" and "overwhelming support" for Barisan Nasional, the parliamentary results of the 1999 general elections barely hide the shift in voter sentiment and instead highlight the inadequacies of Malaysia's electoral system.
That age-old democratic rule of "one person one vote" amounts to little when people are denied representation which reflects actual numbers of votes, and when tens of thousands of voters are disenfranchised. A look at the figures behind BN's "more than two-thirds" victory tells us more.
1) BN loses two-thirds majority: Of the total 5,762,263 votes in Peninsula Malaysia, BN secured only 3,070,343 or 53.3% -- far from 66.66% (two thirds). But because of Malaysia's "first past the post" system and gerrymandering, this was enough to win 103 parliamentary seats (or 71.5%).
Barisan Alternatif won 2,522,912 votes (43.8%) yet ended up with only 42 (29.2%) parliamentary seats (excluding Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan).
Apart from UMNO strongholds Johor (BN 70.9%) and Negri Sembilan (63.9%), the BN total vote was small -- Perlis 55.3%, Penang 50.6%, Perak 53.8%, Pahang 55.4%, Selangor 53.8%, Federal Territory 49.8% (vs BA 48.9%) and Malacca 55.1%.
Barisan Alternatif won more votes for parliamentary seats in Kelantan (59.8%), Terengganu (57.6%) and Kedah (43.3% vs BN 42.8%).
2) Major swing against BN: In all but 10 parliamentary seats in Peninsula Malaysia, BN suffered heavy reductions in its majority compared to 1995.
3) Major swing against UMNO leaders: Key UMNO leaders all suffered massive drops in majority -- Mahathir Mohamad (10,138 down from 17,226), Abdullah Badawi (11,175 down from 17,834), Daim Zainuddin (15,376 down from 22,201), Rafidah Aziz (2,774 down from 10,649), Najib Tun Razak (241 down from 10,793), Zaleha Ismail (803 down from 30,878), Tengku Razaleigh (2,925 down from 4,746) and Hishamuddin Tun Hussein (20,817 down from 24,518).
More tellingly, UMNO leaders Mahathir (22,399), Badawi (19,985), Daim (30,285) and Najib (13,148) collectively polled 85,817 votes. Compare this with the top leaders in the opposition parties: DAP's Lim Kit Siang, Karpal Singh, Chen Man Hin and Tan Seng Giaw (97,414); Keadilan's Wan Azizah, Chandra Muzaffar, Chua Tian Chang and Mohd Ezam (91,780); PAS's Fadzil Nor, Mat Sabu, Hassan Ali and Mohd Hatta (89,202); and PRM's Syed Husin, Sanusi Osman, Hassan Karim and Abdul Razak Ahmad (68,990).
BA leaders (Wan Azizah, Lim Kit Siang, Fadzil Nor and Syed Husin) polled 91,145 votes in total compared to BN leaders (Mahathir, Badawi, Ling Liong Sik and Samy Vellu) who secured 85,562 votes. In fact, Wan Azizah (23,820), Lim Kit Siang (24,176) and Fadzil Nor (22,413) each polled more votes than Mahathir.
4) Big gains by BA: Where they lost, even by large margins, BA candidates managed to significantly reduce BN majorities: Irene Fernandez (7,152 down from 25,763), Mohd Nor Nawai (3,761 down from 30,812), Sivarasa Rasiah (7,767 down from 31,309), Mohd Hatta (803 down from 30,878), Zaitun Kassim (8,835 down from 38,627), Chua Tian Chang (10,447 down from 23,180), Zainur Zakaria (1,417 down from 13,389) and Mohd Ezam (1,440 down from 40,715).
5) The Chinese factor: Contrary to easy explanations, there is inconclusive evidence to show that BN's victory was due to the Chinese vote. Even in the case of Bukit Bendera, Lim Kit Siang reduced the BN majority from 2,918 to 104 votes. Of the 10 seats where BN actually made gains, nine were against DAP (Jelutong, Bayan Baru, Bagan, Ipoh Timor, Telok Intan, Kepong, Seputeh, Cheras and Bakri), with only five of these being BN victories.
DAP still secured Bagan, Kepong, Seputeh and Cheras despite reductions in majority. At most, we may conclude that Chinese voters in these constituencies were affected by BN's campaign of fear.
So, despite the one-sided media coverage, short campaign period, highly personal attacks on BA leaders, in particular Lim Kit Siang and Karpal Singh, threats of violence, instability and Islamic law, exclusion of 680,000 registered voters, and doubts about the validity of the electoral roll, BN only managed to secure 53.3% of votes in Peninsular Malaysia, let alone 66.66%, or two-thirds.
This may help explain why the groundswell of support for the opposition parties, while translated into votes, did not manifest as parliamentary seats. Perhaps now is the time to rethink Malaysia's "first past the post" electoral process which guarantees each person a vote but hardly provides a fair representation of this in parliament.
JEFFREY "Tiada Dalam Record" TAN is a former journalist who now works as a programme manager with an international NGO. He has a Masters of Economics from the University of Sydney.
That age-old democratic rule of "one person one vote" amounts to little when people are denied representation which reflects actual numbers of votes, and when tens of thousands of voters are disenfranchised. A look at the figures behind BN's "more than two-thirds" victory tells us more.
1) BN loses two-thirds majority: Of the total 5,762,263 votes in Peninsula Malaysia, BN secured only 3,070,343 or 53.3% -- far from 66.66% (two thirds). But because of Malaysia's "first past the post" system and gerrymandering, this was enough to win 103 parliamentary seats (or 71.5%).
Barisan Alternatif won 2,522,912 votes (43.8%) yet ended up with only 42 (29.2%) parliamentary seats (excluding Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan).
Apart from UMNO strongholds Johor (BN 70.9%) and Negri Sembilan (63.9%), the BN total vote was small -- Perlis 55.3%, Penang 50.6%, Perak 53.8%, Pahang 55.4%, Selangor 53.8%, Federal Territory 49.8% (vs BA 48.9%) and Malacca 55.1%.
Barisan Alternatif won more votes for parliamentary seats in Kelantan (59.8%), Terengganu (57.6%) and Kedah (43.3% vs BN 42.8%).
2) Major swing against BN: In all but 10 parliamentary seats in Peninsula Malaysia, BN suffered heavy reductions in its majority compared to 1995.
3) Major swing against UMNO leaders: Key UMNO leaders all suffered massive drops in majority -- Mahathir Mohamad (10,138 down from 17,226), Abdullah Badawi (11,175 down from 17,834), Daim Zainuddin (15,376 down from 22,201), Rafidah Aziz (2,774 down from 10,649), Najib Tun Razak (241 down from 10,793), Zaleha Ismail (803 down from 30,878), Tengku Razaleigh (2,925 down from 4,746) and Hishamuddin Tun Hussein (20,817 down from 24,518).
More tellingly, UMNO leaders Mahathir (22,399), Badawi (19,985), Daim (30,285) and Najib (13,148) collectively polled 85,817 votes. Compare this with the top leaders in the opposition parties: DAP's Lim Kit Siang, Karpal Singh, Chen Man Hin and Tan Seng Giaw (97,414); Keadilan's Wan Azizah, Chandra Muzaffar, Chua Tian Chang and Mohd Ezam (91,780); PAS's Fadzil Nor, Mat Sabu, Hassan Ali and Mohd Hatta (89,202); and PRM's Syed Husin, Sanusi Osman, Hassan Karim and Abdul Razak Ahmad (68,990).
BA leaders (Wan Azizah, Lim Kit Siang, Fadzil Nor and Syed Husin) polled 91,145 votes in total compared to BN leaders (Mahathir, Badawi, Ling Liong Sik and Samy Vellu) who secured 85,562 votes. In fact, Wan Azizah (23,820), Lim Kit Siang (24,176) and Fadzil Nor (22,413) each polled more votes than Mahathir.
4) Big gains by BA: Where they lost, even by large margins, BA candidates managed to significantly reduce BN majorities: Irene Fernandez (7,152 down from 25,763), Mohd Nor Nawai (3,761 down from 30,812), Sivarasa Rasiah (7,767 down from 31,309), Mohd Hatta (803 down from 30,878), Zaitun Kassim (8,835 down from 38,627), Chua Tian Chang (10,447 down from 23,180), Zainur Zakaria (1,417 down from 13,389) and Mohd Ezam (1,440 down from 40,715).
5) The Chinese factor: Contrary to easy explanations, there is inconclusive evidence to show that BN's victory was due to the Chinese vote. Even in the case of Bukit Bendera, Lim Kit Siang reduced the BN majority from 2,918 to 104 votes. Of the 10 seats where BN actually made gains, nine were against DAP (Jelutong, Bayan Baru, Bagan, Ipoh Timor, Telok Intan, Kepong, Seputeh, Cheras and Bakri), with only five of these being BN victories.
DAP still secured Bagan, Kepong, Seputeh and Cheras despite reductions in majority. At most, we may conclude that Chinese voters in these constituencies were affected by BN's campaign of fear.
So, despite the one-sided media coverage, short campaign period, highly personal attacks on BA leaders, in particular Lim Kit Siang and Karpal Singh, threats of violence, instability and Islamic law, exclusion of 680,000 registered voters, and doubts about the validity of the electoral roll, BN only managed to secure 53.3% of votes in Peninsular Malaysia, let alone 66.66%, or two-thirds.
This may help explain why the groundswell of support for the opposition parties, while translated into votes, did not manifest as parliamentary seats. Perhaps now is the time to rethink Malaysia's "first past the post" electoral process which guarantees each person a vote but hardly provides a fair representation of this in parliament.
JEFFREY "Tiada Dalam Record" TAN is a former journalist who now works as a programme manager with an international NGO. He has a Masters of Economics from the University of Sydney.
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