Now that former Penang Deputy Chief Minister I Mohammad Fairus Khairuddin has resigned as Penanti assemblyperson, the stage is set for another tussle of strength between PKR and Umno.

In this bout however, PKR clearly has the upper hand. The by-election - to be held within the next 60 days - will be held in the opposition party’s political bastion.

Penanti is one of the three state seats under PKR supremo Anwar Ibrahim’s Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituency.

What would be interesting is whether former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad would campaign in Anwar’s home ground. The former Umno president, a bitter enemy of Anwar, can expect a torrid reception if he joins the fray.

Indeed, PKR should start as hot favourite to score a back-to-back win in Penanti - a semi-rural constituency littered with villages mixed with some commercial activities.

permatang pauh google earth map 220808 The other two state seats are the relatively urbanised Seberang Jaya, currently held by Umno assemblyperson Ariff Shah Omar Shah, and decidedly rural Permatang Pasir, which has been PAS’ Mohd Hamdan Abdul Rahman stronghold since 1999 general election.

Like Permatang Pasir, Penanti has vast expanse of rice fields, dotted with rubber and palm oil plantations.

The state seat has 15,421 voters, of whom 11,296 are Malays, 3,732 Chinese, and 371 Indians, with most inhabitants being industrial workers and small businessmen.

In the Permatang Pauh by-election last August, Penanti voters gave Anwar a thumping majority of 3,276.

PKR’s Abdul Rahman Abdul Kadir won the seat in 1999 before losing it to Permatang Pauh Umno chief Abdul Jalil Abdul Majid in 2004. He in turn lost to Mohammad Fairus last year.

First-timer Mohammad Fairus took the seat with a majority of 2,219. He polled 7,346 votes against Abdul Jalil's 5,127.

Anwar's personal pride at stake

While Umno has a strong presence in the constituency, it would take a brave person to bet against a PKR victory.

Not only that Anwar's personal pride is at stake, the Penanti by-election would also mark the possible election of a deputy chief minister to replace Mohammad Fairus.

However, before the PKR campaign could take off, Anwar will have to resolve a contentious issue among Penanti PKR supporters by pacify those who are aggrieved with the ouster of Mohammad Fairus.

“I think we can deal with the problem,” said a state party leader.

permatang pauh polling day 260808 05 Certain forces within the state PKR have compelled Anwar to coerce Mohammad Fairus to resign as Penanti assemblyperson and force a by-election.

Mohammad Fairus has recently been embroiled in a graft allegation involving illegal quarry operations, and after the Perak political blunder, Anwar is not about to take his chances.

He can ill-afford to wait for the Malaysian Anti Corruption Commission (MACC) to press graft charges against Mohammad Fairus before reacting.

Certain legal experts within PKR are of opinion that MACC does not have sufficient evidence to establish a strong case against Mohammad Fairus.

Fairus may defect to Umno

But the party is worried that the former DCM could be ensnared by Umno.

Some believed that Umno-led Barisan Nasional could use the graft charge to entice Mohammad Fairus into its fold.

After all, BN roped in two Perak PKR assemblypersons who were charged with corruption last February, and Mohammad Fairus too could become a ‘BN friendly’ independent representative.

To avert this, top PKR leaders had to move fast to force Mohammad Fairus to quit and pave the way for a by-election.

Anwar is likely to nominate his trusted lieutenant, Dr Mansor Othman, 59, as PKR candidate.

Mansor, the party’s election machinery deputy chief, is a widely respected politician. He was a professor and lectured at Universiti Sains Malaysia before becoming then deputy premier Anwar's political secretary from 1996 to 1998.

If he wins, he could assume the DCM 1 post - a PKR quota in the state government led by Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng.

A young first-time politician, Mohammad Fairus’ fall from grace is the result of an intense party rivalry, where he was a subject of ridicule since he took office in March last year.

Anti-Fairus blogsites operated by anonymous webmasters mushroomed to hit him hard and low.

Eventually when the graft allegation linking him to the illegal quarry operations emerged, 33-year-old Mohammad Fairus had no choice but hand in his resignation as both DCM and executive councillor last week.