The recent by-elections in Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau which Pakatan Rakyat won convincingly is further proof that the winds of change have not died down since March 2008 but have, in fact, increased in intensity.

Underscoring the two victories is the fact that non-Malay support for PR has increased while Malay support for Umno has remained about the same despite all the ultra-nationalist ethnic rhetoric spouted by Umno.

This point is of critical importance as non-Malay support has always been the linchpin of BN's political power although few in Umno would acknowledge this fact.

This erosion of non-Malay support - which was already evident in the last general elections - will spell the end of BN federal power if not reversed in a timely manner.

The reason for the disproportionate importance of the non-Malay vote despite being the minority in the population is that the Malay vote is usually split almost down the middle resulting in the non-Malays being king-makers in many mixed constituencies.

How ironic that mixed constituencies were once considered safe seats for BN and seats like Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau used to be won by BN without any real fight.

Reinforcing the supposed safety of the mixed seats was the tendency of the ethnic groups to vote along racial lines prior to 2008. The fact that Malay voters would not vote for a DAP candidate nor Chinese voters for a PAS candidate usually meant that BN would have an easy victory.

But this type of ethnic voting has been turned on its head and the seeming invincibility of BN political power begins to shatter.

Let us do an analysis of BN's chances in the next general elections assuming that voter sentiments remain the same.

There are 222 parliament seats so a simple majority in Parliament requires you to win 112 seats. However, one member of Parliament must be the speaker who cannot vote so 113 seats is required for a voting majority.

Of course, a government formed from such a thin majority is too shaky to govern but we shall ignore this practicality for the time being.

There are 51 non-Malay majority seats, 44 mixed seats and 70 Malay majority seats in the Peninsula.

A non-Malay majority seat is defined as having less than 50% Malay voters, a mixed seat from 50% to less than 66% and a Malay-majority seat equal to or greater than 66% Malay voters.

Based on the current voter sentiment, BN will be expected to lose all 51 non-Malay majority seats.

Based on 30% non-Malay support and not more than 60% Malay support, BN should theoretically lose all 44 mixed seats too.

The above percentages of support are reasonable given that non-Malay support for PR in Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau ranged from 70% to 75% and Umno has never garnered more than 60% Malay support even at its strongest.

In fact, Umno's baseline Malay support is 55% and this is hard to shift upwards. Even intense racial posturing in Bukit Gantang resulted in a Malay support of only 57%.

However let's be generous and say that BN wins 20% of the mixed seats based on strong candidates, postal votes, phantom votes or other shenanigans. This gives BN nine seats.

For the 70 Malay majority seats, BN is not expected to make a clean sweep as PAS will give it a tough fight. Fourteen of these seats are in Kelantan, most of which BN has no dream of winning except for Gua Musang which is Tengku Razalaigh Hamzah's stronghold.

In 2008, PAS and PKR collectively won 25 Malay majority seats. Let's be cautious and say PR will only retain these seats in the next round although Kuala Terengganu which is a super majority Malay seat with 88.1% Malays was wrestled by PAS from BN in a recent by-election.

So BN's tally in the Peninsula is 9 nine mixed seats and 45 Malay-majority seats making a dismal total of 54. Can the East Malaysian states save BN this time?

In 2008, PR only managed to win one parliamentary seat each in Sabah and Sarawak despite there being seven Chinese-majority seats in Sarawak. This was due to non-political cooperation between the opposition parties leading to three-cornered fights.

Neither are the Dayak-majority seats safe. The wretchedly poor and marginalised Dayaks may be too intimidated to resist the ‘carrot and stick' approach wielded in Batang Ai but they have real grievances and their loyalty is a house of cards which can crumble at the possibility of a change of government.

In Sabah, Sapp who is now the champion of Sabahans after pulling out of BN should do better than the two seats it won in 2008. Yong Teck Lee is an astute politician who has read the winds of political change correctly.

Nevertheless, we shall not speculate but be overly generous and assume that BN sweeps all the East Malaysian seats except for the two won by PR and the two won by Sapp. As there are 57 seats there, this gives BN 53 seats from their so-called fixed deposit of seats.

This makes a final tally of 107 parliamentary seats for BN which is not enough to make a simple majority of 113 even after making the most generous assumption for East Malaysia.

But will the East Malaysian parties be so loyal to BN? The reality is that Umno's hold on the East Malaysian parties is tenuous and many of them will stumble over each other to jump ship at the first whiff of federal change.

We have also not factored in the erosion of support for BN due to increasing numbers of young voters joining the electorate every year who are mainly pro-opposition and transcend all races.

Indeed, the Election Commission displays its fear of young working voters by putting polling day for by-elections on working days to try to depress their turnout.

So this is my take on the next general election although some will say it is too simple. But even if my numbers are out, it is clear that the era of BN winning two-thirds majority is over.

If BN doesn't lose power outright, the best case scenario is that it will gain a paper-thin majority which is highly dependent on a clean sweep of East Malaysia and even then, governing will be practically impossible as each party there can individually hold BN to ransom.