Observers: Pakatan still has the edge in both 'bukits'

The Bukit Selambau state seat in Kedah and Bukit Gantang federal seat in Perak will go to the polls tomorrow with Pakatan Rakyat being tipped by observers as marginal favourite to defeat Barisan Nasional and retain both constituencies, albeit with lower majorities.

Electoral mood for the two by-elections is not at the same level as last year’s general election, and observers noted there has not been a major shift of votes from Pakatan to BN either.

However, observers say that Pakatan majority margins in Bukit Selambau and Bukit Gantang could be affected by lower voter turnout.

"Pakatan still have the edge over BN in both areas," noted an observer, who is part of an election watchdog group in both areas.

In Bukit Selambau, main rivals, MIC candidate S Ganesan and PKR nominee S Manikumar, will square off with 13 independent candidates – R Loganathan, Tan Hock Huat, Mohd Radhi Mat, Mohd Fadzi Wahab, Abdul Rahim Abu, L Sarala, A Jayagopal, S Moganakumar, Khamis Awang, Husaini Yaacob, Venason Micheal, Mejar (Rtd) Anuar Abd Hamid and T Chandrarajan.

Bukit Selambau by-election records the biggest ever field of 15 contestants in the country’s electoral history.

Ousted Perak menteri besar Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin faces BN candidate Ismail Saffian and independent Kamarul Ramizu Idris in the Bukit Gantang parliamentary constituency.

Bukit Selambau’s 35,140 registered voters comprise 50.2 percent Malays, Indians 29.5 percent, Chinese 19.3 percent and one percent others.

Straight fight in Batang Ai

In another by-election to be held simultaneously in Sarawak, for the Batang Ai state seat, PKR's Jawah Gerang, a former five-term member of Parliament for Lubok Antu, will take on BN's Malcolm Mussen in a straight fight.

Bukit Gantang is a microcosm of the country's multicultural population, with 60 percent Malays, 30 percent Chinese and 10 percent Indians making up its 55,562 voters, while Batang Ai is a majority Iban constituency - up to 93 percent of the 8,129 voters.

Many observers predict that it would a 2-1 by-election victory for Pakatan with BN triumphing only in Sarawak.

Malay votes and Chinese voters’ turnout nonetheless hold the key in both “bukit constituencies.

Pakatan hopes to secure at 50 per cent of the Malay votes and a two-third of non-Malay votes in both areas.

PAS vice-president Husam Musa said the party has traditionally captured 35 per cent of the Malay votes in previous elections in Bukit Gantang, considered as a Umno stronghold until the last general election.

This time, he said PAS should be able to increase its Malay votes tally while enjoying up to 70 per cent of non-Malay votes.

PKR too hopes to capture at least half of the Malay votes and two-thirds of non-Malay votes in Bukit Selambau.

DAP trying to woo more Chinese voters

Chinese voters so far have shown less enthusiasm in Bukit Selambau mainly because both the main candidates were neither Chinese nor from DAP.

In Bukit Gantang, however, the Chinese community is more involved due to issues at stake such as the BN’s recent coup d’etat..

Nizar was undoubtedly popular among the Chinese community during his one-year tenure as menteri besar.

This, said observers could affect the Chinese turnout and a bigger Chinese turnout will favour Pakatan.

PKR’s ally DAP is working overtime to woo more Chinese to come out and vote for Pakatan in both the “bukits” tomorrow.

The truce between Pakatan de facto leader Anwar and Hindraf, plus the recent defections of some members of the People Progressive Party in Kedah to PKR will surely improve Manikumar’s Indian vote tally.

Only two independent candidates, Mejar (Rtd) Anuar and Chandrarajan are expected to pose any threat to the main rivals in Bukit Selambau.

The duo has been predicted to snatch some 10 per cent of the votes, while the other independents could take another 10 per cent.

"This would affect both MIC and PKR," said an observer.

Nizar a victim of an unethical coup

Although there are pockets of grievances, most Bukit Selambau constituents do not have any ill-feelings against the PAS-led Pakatan Kedah state government led by Menteri Besar Azizan Abdul Razak.

Nizar is expected to seize a bigger chunk of Indian votes than his rivals in Bukit Gantang.

Many non-Malays feel that Nizar was a victim of an unethical coup d’etat while Umno has campaigned hard to depict Nizar as a traitor to the royalty.

Pakatan campaigners have countered the accusation by portraying the PAS strongman as a modern “Tun Perak”. (Tun Perak was a famous bendahara or premier during the golden era of Malacca Sultanate.)

The extent of the impact on Malay voters by this Umno character assassination campaign however, remains to be seen.

The installation of Najib Abdul Razak as the new premier and former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s campaign of late could add further twist to the plot, both positive and negative to BN.

As tomorrow is a working day in Kedah and Perak, most observers agreed they expect between 65 and 70 per cent voters’ turnout overall.

If this happens, they noted Pakatan should win by a margin of 1,000-1,500 in Bukit Selambau and perhaps by 2,000-2,500 votes in Bukit Gantang.

However, last minute desperate campaigning by both sides today could alter the equation. After all, the voters hold the key to victory.