A political analyst has forecasted that the two by-elections held simultaneously in Peninsular Malaysia – Bukit Selambau (Kedah) and Bukit Gantang (Perak) – were open contests that could go down to the wire.

sivamurugan pandian 210508 Although the groundswell may favour Pakatan Rakyat's candidates, Universiti Sains Malaysia's Dr Sivamurugan Pandian predicted that the week-long campaign was set to determine whether the ground sentiments would translate into votes.

The local don said a sizeable number of voters in both constituencies were fence sitters and the electorate mood was different from that of the last March general election.

"The majority voters in both areas were anti-Barisan Nasional. But now many voters are still undecided," he told Malaysiakini .

He pointed out that the record number of independent entries – 13 altogether - to contest the Bukit Selambau state seat would surely split the votes since the constituents would be spoilt with choice.

In Bukit Selambau, main rivals, MIC candidate S Ganesan and PKR nominee S Manikumar, will square off with independent candidates – R Loganathan, Tan Hock Huat, Mohd Radhi Mat, Mohd Fadzi Wahab, Abdul Rahim Abu, L Sarala, A Jayagopal, S Moganakumar, Khamis Awang, Husaini Yaacob, Venason Micheal, Mejar (Rtd) Anuar Abd Hamid and T Chandrarajan.

In the Bukit Gantang parliamentary constituency, ousted menteri besar Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin will contest under the PAS ticket against BN candidate Ismail Saffian and independent Kamarul Ramizu Idris.

In another by-election to be held simultaneously in Sarawak, for the Batang Ai state seat, PKR's Jawah Gerang, a former five-term member of Parliament for Lubok Antu, will take on BN's Malcolm Mussen in a straight fight.

Malay voters hold the key

Bukit Selambau's 35,140 registered voters comprise 50.2 percent Malays, Indians 29.5 percent, Chinese 19.3 percent and one percent others.

Bukit Gantang is a microcosm of the country's multicultural population, with 60 percent Malays, 30 percent Chinese and 10 percent Indians making up its 55,562 voters, while Batang Ai is a majority Iban constituency - up to 93 percent of the 8,129 voters.

Sivamurugan believes the Malay voters hold the key in Bukit Selambau while the Chinese would be the deciding factor in Bukit Gantang.

Since the Indians may cast their votes to anyone, either along communal or non-communal lines, in Bukit Selambau and the majority of Chinese were expected to back Pakatan, he said the Malays would tilt the balance between victory and defeat.

manikumar pkr s ganesan bn mic bukit selambau by election 200309 He said the presence of a large pool of independent candidates may just favour MIC candidate Ganesan at the expense of PKR's Manikumar ( left in photo ).

Manikumar is seen by many local PKR Indian leaders as an 'outsider' who had stolen the seat right from under their noses and that could jeorpardise PKR's chances.

PKR Jerai division chief B Kalaivanar together with 500 supporters have already quit the party, PKR members Moganakumar and Jayagopal are contesting as independent candidates, while K Masilamani had closed down his temporary election operations room – all under protest against Manikumar's candidacy.

However, there is also the possibility that the rift in PKR may not necessarily favour MIC, but rather profit the independent Indian candidates.